空间视角下的中国物质文化遗产犯罪风险分析

Ning Ding, Yiming Zhai, Hongyu Lv
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引用次数: 0

摘要

物质文化遗产容易受到各种风险的影响,尤其是来自犯罪活动的风险。通过定量方法从空间角度分析犯罪风险的分布和流动,更好地管理风险,为文化遗产保护做出贡献。本文对2011 - 2019年中国犯罪风险的空间特征进行了探索和总结。首先,采用平均近邻法(ANN)和Jenks自然断裂分类法(nks Natural Breaks Classification)分析发现,国家重点保护遗产地及其犯罪风险在空间上呈现聚类特征,且大部分国家重点保护遗产地位于长江中下游和黄河中下游地区;其次,在空间统计分析中,经济对犯罪风险没有影响。然而,人口密度、NPS分布和旅游业发展对特定类型的犯罪风险有影响。最后,利用Global Moran’s I检验了犯罪风险与文物保护政策之间的强敏感性。本研究的定量结果可用于改进犯罪风险预防策略和遗产安全政策制定的有效性。
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Crime Risk Analysis of Tangible Cultural Heritage in China from a Spatial Perspective
Tangible cultural heritage is vulnerable to various risks, particularly those stemming from criminal activity. Through analyzing the distribution and flow of crime risks from a spatial perspective based on quantitative methods, risks can be better managed to contribute to the protection of cultural heritage. This paper explores and summarizes the spatial characteristics of crime risks from 2011 to 2019 in China. Firstly, the average nearest neighbor (ANN) and the Jenks Natural Breaks Classification method showed that the national key protected heritage sites (NPS) and crime risks exhibit clustering features in space, and most of the NPS were located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Secondly, the economy has no impact on crime risks in the spatial statistical analysis. However, the population density, distribution of NPS, and tourism development influenced specific types of crime risks. Finally, Global Moran’s I was used to examine the strong sensitivity between crime risks and cultural relics protection policies. The quantitative results of this study can be applied to improve strategies for crime risk prevention and the effectiveness of heritage security policy formulation.
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