贸易一体化与冲击同步

Ian Babetskii
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引用次数: 82

摘要

根据欧盟委员会(1990),更紧密的一体化导致不对称冲击更少,国家之间的商业周期更同步。然而,对于克鲁格曼(1993)来说,更紧密的一体化意味着更高的专业化,因此,更高的特殊冲击风险。根据一组转型国家的证据,本文试图确定谁的论点得到数据的支持。这是通过将估计的供需冲击不对称的时变系数与贸易强度和汇率指标进行比较来实现的。我们发现:(1)贸易强度的增加导致需求冲击的对称性提高:一体化对供给冲击不对称性的影响因国而异;(二)汇率波动的减小对需求冲击趋同有正向影响。研究结果证实了“欧盟委员会的观点”以及Kenen(2001)的观点,即贸易一体化对冲击不对称性的影响取决于冲击的类型。(c)欧洲复兴开发银行,2005年。
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Trade integration and synchronization of shocks
According to the >European Commission (1990), closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. However, for Krugman (1993) closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data. This is done by confronting estimated time-varying coefficients of supply and demand shock asymmetry with indicators of trade intensity and exchange rates. We find that (i) an increase in trade intensity leads to higher symmetry of demand shocks: the effect of integration on supply shock asymmetry varies from country to country; and (ii) a decrease in exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on demand shock convergence. The results confirm 'The European Commission view' and also the argument by Kenen (2001) according to which the impact of trade integration on shock asymmetry depends on the type of shock. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2005.
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期刊介绍: Economics of Transition publishes high-quality, refereed articles on the economics of structural transformation, institutional development, and growth. It presents innovative theoretical work and econometric analyses of the process of economic reform and its macroeconomic effects. The journal aims to promote new thinking on how institutions and institutional change can be analyzed and measured and how their impact on aggregate economic performance can be evaluated.
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