不同气象变量对大规模太阳能发电的影响分析——以西班牙为例

Sarah Kandil, Fatemeh Marzbani, A. Alzaatreh
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摘要

化石燃料发电的稀缺性和对环境的不利影响,以及国际减排目标,需要大规模将可再生能源并入电网。这些资源具有间歇性,导致在将大量此类能源纳入电网及其经济和环境优势之间进行权衡。因此,研究不同气象变量对太阳能发电的影响具有重要意义。为此,分析不同气象变量之间的相关性和相互依赖性,并利用多元线性回归确定影响太阳能发电的显著变量。西班牙四年的每小时累积总太阳能发电量及其气象变量被用作案例研究。每个月建立12个不同的多元线性回归模型,并报告显著变量。因变量为MW累计太阳能发电量,自变量为温度、湿度、风速、气压和云量。在不同月份记录影响最大的变量。
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Analyzing The Impact of Different Meteorological Variables on Large-Scale Solar generation: A Case Study of Spain
Scarcity and adverse environmental impacts of fossil fuels for electricity generation along with international emission reduction goals necessitate large-scale integration of renewable energies into power grids. These resources have intermittent nature which leads to a tradeoff between the inclusion of large shares of such sources of energy into the electricity network and their economical and environmental advantages. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of different meteorological variables on solar generation. To that end, correlation and interdependence among different meteorological variables were analyzed, and multiple linear regression was utilized to determine the significant variables that impact solar generation. Four years of hourly cumulative total solar generation of Spain has been used as a case study along with its meteorological variables. Twelve different multiple linear regression models were developed for each month and the significant variables were reported. The dependent variable was the cumulative solar generation in MW and the independent variables were the temperature, humidity, wind speed, pressure, and cloudiness. The variables with the highest influence were recorded for different months.
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