制度因素与土地开发时机:适用于波兰GZM大都市的生存分析

IF 1.3 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of European Real Estate Research Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI:10.1108/jerer-04-2021-0021
Katarzyna Reyman, G. Maier
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是提高对制度因素在房地产开发中的作用的认识。作者在多元计量估计中考虑了分区(存在和类型)、处置权类型和财产买卖类型。分析的因变量是获得空地和申请建筑许可证之间的时间,这段时间必须做出许多重要的发展决策。这一指标与土地持有和投机等有争议的现象密切相关。设计/方法/方法作者估计了考克斯比例风险模型,将获得建筑许可证和申请建筑许可证之间的时间作为因变量和制度指标,并将一些控制变量作为解释变量。研究区域是波兰南部的GZM大都市。该地区在制度安排方面表现出足够的可变性,可以进行这类分析。结果分析表明,制度因素对房地产开发过程有显著影响。在没有发布分区计划的地区,申请建筑许可证的时间要长得多。当州政府(作为买方或卖方)参与交易时,提交建筑许可申请也需要更长的时间。虽然该文书通常是为了加快开发,但永久用益权意味着在申请建筑许可证之前需要更长的时间。由于作者对控制变量和鲁棒性检查的结果,作者对分析结果充满信心。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一个探讨制度因素如何影响房地产开发时机的研究。通过使用波兰一个地区的数据,作者还增加了对中东欧国家房地产开发的了解。
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Institutional factors and the timing of land development: a survival analysis applied to the GZM Metropolis in Poland
PurposeThe purpose of the article is to improve the understanding of the role of institutional factors in real estate development. The authors take into account zoning (existence and type), type of right of disposal and type of buyer and seller of property in a multivariate econometric estimation. Dependent variable of the analysis is the time between acquisition of empty land and the application for a building permit, a period when many important development decisions have to be made. This indicator is closely related to debated phenomena like land hording and speculation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a Cox proportional hazard model with the time between acquisition and application for a building permit as dependent variable and institutional indicators and a number of control variables as explanatory variables. Study area is the GZM Metropolis in the South of Poland. This region shows enough variability in institutional arrangements to allow for this type of analysis.FindingsThe analysis shows that institutional factors significantly influence the real estate development process. In areas that have not issued a zoning plan, the period until the building permit application is significantly longer. When the state is involved in a transaction (as purchaser or seller), it also takes longer until the building permit application is submitted. Although the instrument is usually intended to speed up development, perpetual usufruct implies a longer period until building permit application. Because of the results the authors get for control variables and for robustness checks, the authors are confident of the results of the analysis.Originality/valueTo the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that deals with the question how institutional factors influence the timing of real estate development. By using data for a region in Poland, the authors also add to knowledge about real estate development in CEE countries.
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CiteScore
3.10
自引率
7.70%
发文量
18
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