Conditional probability in early childhood: a case study

Brigitte Johana Sánchez Robayo Virginia Tech brigsa1@vt.edu Jesse L. M. Wilkins Virginia Tech wilkins@vt.edu This study investigated the intuitive knowledge of conditional probability in one four-year-old child. Six clinical interviews were video-recorded for analyzing transcripts and expressions from the child. Findings from this research suggest that the child has a pre-operational intuition about change in sample space in non-replacement situations. He also seems to have an intuitive understanding of independent events. Furthermore, although his judgments are mainly subjective, he does use quantitative justifications, although, inconsistently.