“一带一路”基础设施发展对贸易成本冲击影响分析 (Economic Impact of Infrastructure Development on the 'Belt and Road' Countries）

Chinese Abstract: 在中国“一带一路”政策推进过程中，促进沿线国家基础设施建设是中国对外经济贸易政策重点。与此同时，因基础设施建设项目导致的贸易便利化程度改善也增进了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易往来和经济联系。本文将采用全球可计算一般均衡模型，模拟量化“一带一路”基础设施项目发展对沿线国家带来的经济影响。模型根据贸易便利化所带来的贸易时间成本减少转化为等值关税，并以此作为政策冲击量化依据设置不同的模拟情景。模拟结果表明，在贸易便利化程度优化前提下，包括中国在内的“一带一路”沿线国家经济都呈现正增长，但美国、日本、韩国则由于“一带一路”区域贸易战略的实施导致贸易转移，GDP出现不同程度下降。中国建造业、金属产品、钢铁、运输工具以及机械设备等与基础设施建设密切相关的行业部门产出也出现增长。

English Abstract: Infrastructure development is one of the strategic initiatives of China’s “Belt and Road” strategy. At the same time, the improvement of trade facilitation resulted from infrastructure development has also strengthened China’s trade and economic connections with “Belt and Road” countries. This article uses global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the economic impact of infrastructure development on “Belt and Road” countries. The model transfers the “shock” of trade facilitation into the reduction of tariffs and sets two simulation scenarios. The result shows that the improvement of trade facilitation will lead to positive economic growth of the “Belt and Road” countries. Otherwise, GDP in the US, Japan and Korea will decrease because of the effect of trade transfer to “Belt and Countries” countries. In China, the output of infrastructure-related sectors, including construction, metal products, ferrous, vehicle and mechanical equipment, will increase.