考虑封城效应的新型冠状病毒数学模型

V. Verma, M. Agarwal, Ashish Verma
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摘要

本文描述了一种新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)爆发的数学模型和动力学,它是一种控制度量;以10万例病例和死亡为单位的封锁效果。研究了不同封城成功率下的封城效应,描述了感染动态中的多重传播途径,并推动了环境宿主在该病传播和传播中的作用。在这种情况下,数学模型是制定令人印象深刻的战略以抗击这一流行病的重要工具。我们展示了系统的有界性,平衡点的局部稳定性分析和全局稳定性分析,以检验其流行病学相关性。我们还进行了数值模拟来验证分析结果。
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A mathematical model for the novel coronavirus with effect of lockdown
This paper delineates the mathematical modeling and dynamics of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) an outbreak, and it is a control measurement;the effect of lockdown in terms of lakhs of cases and deaths. The lockdown effect is studied with a different lockdown success rate and also describes the multiple transmission route in the infection dynamics, and pushes the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and the spread of this disease. In this situation, mathematical models are an important tool to assign an impressive strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We exhibit the boundedness of the system, the local stability analysis and global stability analysis of the equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. We have also carried out numerical simulations to validate the analytical results.
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