The Nexus between Agricultural Productivity, Oil Prices, Economic Growth, and Financial Development in the USA

Purpose. The study aims to examine the nexus between agricultural productivity by connecting oil prices, economic growth, and financial development. Design/Methodology/Approach. A newly formulated ARDL model was used to estimate an agricultural productivity nexus model using annual time-series data from 1962 to 2016. Innovation and additive structural break unit root tests were applied to determine the existence of unit roots, and the results reaffirmed that all the variables were stationary at first difference. The Chow Breakpoint test was applied to confirm a structural break in the year 2008 caused by the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. Findings and Implications. The results depicted a long-run relationship linking agricultural productivity, oil prices, economic growth, financial development and a financial crisis. The results also showed that financial development and economic growth have positive effects on agricultural productivity. The empirical findings further suggested that an increase in oil prices and the prevalence of a financial crisis have severe adverse effects on agricultural productivity. Originality. The study provides a novel viewpoint of agricultural productivity by connecting oil prices, economic growth, and financial stability and development. The study successfully demonstrated that the financial sector and oil price stability are pivotal for enhancing agricultural productivity initiatives. This study highlights the policy implications of the estimated results for policymakers seeking to boost agricultural productivity by addressing economic misfortunes induced by oil shocks and a financial crisis.