Credit-Based Mobility Management Considering Travelers' Budgeting Behaviors Under Uncertainty

This study analyzes the performance of a credit-based mobility management scheme considering travelers’ budgeting behaviors for credit consumption under uncertainty. In the scheme, government agencies periodically distribute a certain number of credits to travelers; travelers must pay a credit charge for driving to complete their trips. Otherwise, they can take public transit free of credit charge. Consequently, within a credit-releasing cycle, travelers must budget their credit consumption to fulfill their mobility needs. Such budgeting behaviors can be viewed as a multistage decision-making process under uncertainty. Considering a transportation system with a credit scheme, we propose parsimonious models to investigate how the uncertainty associated with individual mobility needs and the subsequent travelers’ credit-budgeting behavior influence the multistage equilibrium of the transportation system, as well as the performance of the credit scheme on managing the transportation system. Both analytical and numerical results suggest that travelers tend to restrict their credit consumption in the early stage of a credit-releasing cycle to hedge against the risks associated with using up all credits, which compromises the performances of credit-based schemes. Moreover, a negative attitude toward risk aggravates the discrepancy between the credit consumption of the early and late stages. Last, we propose a contingency credit scheme to mitigate the negative impact incurred by travelers’ budgeting behaviors.