市场动态。现金流与流动性赤字的思考

delete Pub Date : 2016-08-25 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3040580
V. Malyshkin
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文首次尝试从动态方程“未来价格趋向于单位时间内交易股票数量最大化的值”的非平稳解中获得市场方向信息[1]。我们证明了价格影响的概念很难适用于市场动态。相反,我们认为执行流$I=dV/dt$算子具有“来自未来的影响”术语,提供有关尚未执行的交易的信息。“未来对$I$的影响”可以从已经执行的交易中直接估计,然后从实验观察到的事实中获得价格的方向信息,即$I$和$p$算子具有相同的特征函数(动态影响近似的确切结果$p=p(I)$)。找到了“无未来信息”的条件,并对定向预测质量进行了讨论。这项工作为解决最终的市场动力学问题做出了重大贡献:找到一个自动交易机器的存在(或不存在的证明)的证据,该机器作为一个自主代理(又名市场动力学方程的存在),在自由市场上始终保持正的P\&L。最后给出了该理论的软件实现参考。
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Market Dynamics. On a Muse of Cash Flow and Liquidity Deficit
A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. We demonstrate that the concept of price impact is poorly applicable to market dynamics. Instead, we consider the execution flow $I=dV/dt$ operator with the "impact from the future" term providing information about not--yet--executed trades. The "impact from the future" on $I$ can be directly estimated from the already--executed trades, the directional information on price is then obtained from the experimentally observed fact that the $I$ and $p$ operators have the same eigenfunctions (the exact result in the dynamic impact approximation $p=p(I)$). The condition for "no information about the future" is found and directional prediction quality is discussed. This work makes a substantial contribution toward solving the ultimate market dynamics problem: find evidence of existence (or proof of non--existence) of an automated trading machine which consistently makes positive P\&L on a free market as an autonomous agent (aka the existence of the market dynamics equation). The software with a reference implementation of the theory is provided.
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