{"title":"市场动态。现金流与流动性赤字的思考","authors":"V. Malyshkin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3040580","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation \"future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time\" [1] is presented. We demonstrate that the concept of price impact is poorly applicable to market dynamics. Instead, we consider the execution flow $I=dV/dt$ operator with the \"impact from the future\" term providing information about not--yet--executed trades. The \"impact from the future\" on $I$ can be directly estimated from the already--executed trades, the directional information on price is then obtained from the experimentally observed fact that the $I$ and $p$ operators have the same eigenfunctions (the exact result in the dynamic impact approximation $p=p(I)$). The condition for \"no information about the future\" is found and directional prediction quality is discussed. This work makes a substantial contribution toward solving the ultimate market dynamics problem: find evidence of existence (or proof of non--existence) of an automated trading machine which consistently makes positive P\\&L on a free market as an autonomous agent (aka the existence of the market dynamics equation). The software with a reference implementation of the theory is provided.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Market Dynamics. On a Muse of Cash Flow and Liquidity Deficit\",\"authors\":\"V. Malyshkin\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3040580\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation \\\"future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time\\\" [1] is presented. We demonstrate that the concept of price impact is poorly applicable to market dynamics. Instead, we consider the execution flow $I=dV/dt$ operator with the \\\"impact from the future\\\" term providing information about not--yet--executed trades. The \\\"impact from the future\\\" on $I$ can be directly estimated from the already--executed trades, the directional information on price is then obtained from the experimentally observed fact that the $I$ and $p$ operators have the same eigenfunctions (the exact result in the dynamic impact approximation $p=p(I)$). The condition for \\\"no information about the future\\\" is found and directional prediction quality is discussed. This work makes a substantial contribution toward solving the ultimate market dynamics problem: find evidence of existence (or proof of non--existence) of an automated trading machine which consistently makes positive P\\\\&L on a free market as an autonomous agent (aka the existence of the market dynamics equation). The software with a reference implementation of the theory is provided.\",\"PeriodicalId\":11044,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"delete\",\"volume\":\"72 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2016-08-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"delete\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3040580\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"delete","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3040580","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Market Dynamics. On a Muse of Cash Flow and Liquidity Deficit
A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. We demonstrate that the concept of price impact is poorly applicable to market dynamics. Instead, we consider the execution flow $I=dV/dt$ operator with the "impact from the future" term providing information about not--yet--executed trades. The "impact from the future" on $I$ can be directly estimated from the already--executed trades, the directional information on price is then obtained from the experimentally observed fact that the $I$ and $p$ operators have the same eigenfunctions (the exact result in the dynamic impact approximation $p=p(I)$). The condition for "no information about the future" is found and directional prediction quality is discussed. This work makes a substantial contribution toward solving the ultimate market dynamics problem: find evidence of existence (or proof of non--existence) of an automated trading machine which consistently makes positive P\&L on a free market as an autonomous agent (aka the existence of the market dynamics equation). The software with a reference implementation of the theory is provided.