全球干散货市场与中国集装箱市场同步分析

Journal of Korean navigation and port research Pub Date : 2017-02-28 DOI:10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25

Hyunsok Kim, Myung-Hee Chang

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本调查的目的是分析现有的全球运价指数、波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)和中国集装箱运价指数(CCFI)与2000年至2016年月度数据之间的同步。利用商业周期的非平稳性，我们采用了engle - granger2阶段生态集成标准，发现没有同步。Onthecontrary、weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket。TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry。实际上，这意味着将ecfi纳入全球市场前景比将其作为全球货运指数(bdi)的替代品更为合适。Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry。这表明，在不稳定的全球市场预测中，需要考虑中国经济的波动。该案例特别适用于航运业的同步性波动，提供了重要的科学结论。

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Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market

: Thepurposeofthisinvestigationistoanalyzethesynchronizationbetweentherepresentativeglobalfreightindex,theBaltic DrybulkIndex(BDI)andtheChinaContainerFreightIndex(CCFI)withmonthlydatafrom2000to2016.Usingthenon-stationarity ofthebusinesscyclethatisabletoincludecommontrends, weemploytheEngle-Granger2stageco-integrationtestandfoundno synchronization.Onthecontrary,weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality,whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket.TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry.Inpractice,thismeansthatitismoreappropriatetoincludeCCFI inthe globalmarketoutlookthanuseitasasubstitutefortheglobalfreightrateindex,theBDI.Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry.ItsuggeststhattheeconomicfluctuationsofChinaneedtobeconsideredinthe unstable globalmarketforecast.Inparticular, thiscaseappliestothe fluctuationsintheshippingindustrysynchronismandprovides importantresultsinscientificterms.

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Journal of Korean navigation and port research

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