海岸带溢油模型的阿莫科加的斯事件后向预报

Mark Reed , Erich Gundlach
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引用次数: 17

摘要

为美国内政部矿产管理局开发了沿海地区溢油模型(COZOIL)。该模型已经与1978年法国布列塔尼附近的阿莫科加的斯石油泄漏事件的数据进行了测试。试验在三个尺度或网格分辨率水平上进行:(1)沉船现场附近相对详细的小区域(中尺度,20 × 40公里);(2)大面积(宏观尺度,100 × 175公里),几乎涵盖了整个海岸线影响区;(3)泄漏地点附近相同的大面积区域,并附有额外的细节。详细的中尺度测试用例在预测早期高估了陆上石油的数量,但得出了石油的总体方差和分布。模型和原型的差异似乎是由于所讨论的海岸线的复杂性和在这些空间尺度上的水动力输入数据的局限性。由于网格单元的大小,宏观测试用例提供的分辨率较低,但可以更好地测量海上和陆上石油的总体分布。陆上石油的动态质量平衡真实地描述了实际的泄漏情况,并与观测结果进行了比较。从这些测试中得到的一个明确的教训是,仅仅提高海岸地貌的分辨率并不一定会产生更真实的模拟,而且可能导致模型性能下降。在水动力和海岸分辨率之间的正确匹配下,模拟的质量平衡与空间和时间上的观测结果非常吻合。
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Hindcast of the Amoco Cadiz event with a coastal zone oil spill model

A coastal zone oil spill model (COZOIL) was developed for the US Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service. The model has been tested against data from the 1978 Amoco Cadiz oil spill off Brittany, France. Tests were conducted at three scales or levels of grid resolution: (1) a relatively detailed, small area (mesoscale, 20 × 40 km) near the wreck site; (2) a large area (macroscale, 100 × 175 km) encompassing virtually the entire shoreline impact area; (3) the same large area with additional detail near the spill site.

The detailed, mesoscale test case overestimated the quantity of oil onshore by as much as a factor of two early in the hindcast, but produced the general variance and distribution of oil. Model and prototype differences appear to be due to the complexity of the shoreline in question and limitations of the hydrodynamic input data at these spatial scales. The macroscale test cases provided less resolution because of grid cell size, but resulted in better measures of the overall distributions of offshore and onshore oil. The dynamic mass balance of onshore oil realistically depicted the actual spill case and compares well with observations. A clear lesson from these tests is that simply increasing resolution of coastal geomorphology will not necessarily produce more realistic simulations, and may result in degraded model performance. With correct matching between hydrodynamic and coastal resolutions, modeled mass balances compared very well with observations in both space and time.

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