玉米可变施氮量光学传感器的经济可行性

Rodrigo Nogueira-Martins, Francisco de Assis de Carvalho Pinto, Altair Dias de Moura, Wagner da Cunha Siqueira, Flora Maria de Melo Villar
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摘要

本研究旨在利用确定性和概率模型确定SPAD-502和ClorofiLOG CFL1030叶绿素仪在小农场玉米氮肥管理中的经济可行性。为此,采用三种基于不同氮充分性指数的变量施肥系统,分析了玉米生产中具有代表性的现金流。因此,对于每个系统,模拟了8种不同种植面积的情景和2种不同的叶绿素计指数(CMI)采样方法:情景1、2、3和4使用1、3、5和7 ha面积30个单独采样的CMI平均值;情景5、6、7和8使用了区域的CMI平均值(每个区域30个单独采样),分别在1、3、5、7和7 ha区域使用了3、5、7和9个区域。传感器的经济可行性使用不同的经济指标来确定,如内部收益率(IRR)和净现值(NPV),考虑到最低吸引力率(MRA)为每年6%,项目期限为8年。通过蒙特卡洛模拟评估风险。结果表明,无论采用何种抽样方法,在巴西获得SPAD-502或通过美国进口SPAD-502在种植面积分别为7公顷和5公顷时,在经济上是可行的。相反,ClorofiLOG CFL1030可以在3公顷以下的区域实现更大的经济可行性。
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Economic feasibility of optical sensors for variable rate nitrogen fertilization in corn
This study aimed to determine the economic feasibility of the chlorophyll meters SPAD-502 and ClorofiLOG CFL1030 for nitrogen fertilization management in corn using deterministic and probabilistic models for small farms. To do so, representative cash flows for corn production were analyzed using three variable rate fertilization systems based on different nitrogen sufficiency indices. Thus, for each system, eight scenarios of different-sized cultivation areas and two sampling methodologies of the chlorophyll meter index (CMI) were simulated as follows: scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4 used the CMI average obtained from 30 individual samplings in 1, 3, 5 and 7 ha areas; scenarios 5, 6, 7 and 8 used the CMI average in zones (30 individual samplings per zone), with 3, 5, 7 and 9 zones in 1, 3, 5 and 7 ha areas, respectively. The economic feasibility of the sensors was determined using different economic indicators, such as the internal rate of return (IRR) and the net present value (NPV), considering a minimum rate of attractiveness (MRA) of 6% per year with an 8-year project horizon. The risk was assessed by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that regardless of the sampling approach, the SPAD-502 is economically feasible when acquired in Brazil or via importation through the USA in cultivation areas from 7 or 5 ha in size, respectively. Conversely, the ClorofiLOG CFL1030 could result in greater economic feasibility in areas from 3 ha.
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