地缘政治经济变化中的马来西亚:驾驭中美大国竞争

Kok Fay Chin
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引用次数: 1

摘要

过去两年,地缘政治紧张局势不断升级,不仅发生在政治领域,也发生在经济领域,尤其是技术和全球供应链、基础设施互联互通、贸易和金融领域。随着美国和中国之间的紧张局势在许多方面升级,东南亚再次成为战略竞争的焦点,拜登的“印太战略2022”试图重建美国主导的亚洲秩序,以削弱中国在该地区日益增长的影响力。在他的印太战略之后,一系列经济举措的重点是重新配置半导体全球供应链。在此背景下,本文旨在研究马来西亚如何应对当前全球地缘政治和地缘经济变化带来的复杂合作、竞争和冲突模式。本文受益于国际政治经济学研究的见解,该研究探讨了马来西亚政府如何努力调和国内和国际要务,以驾驭不断变化的全球地缘政治经济,这既可以被视为威胁,也可以被国家和非国家行为体视为机遇。对冲是否站得住脚的问题,无疑取决于大国竞争的程度。考虑到日益加剧的地区两极化和经济全球化退却的有害影响带来的更大不确定性,只要美中竞争(尚未)升级为彻底的军事冲突,马来西亚将继续保持战略模糊性。然而,该论文的结论是,对冲空间可能会受到挤压,因为像马来西亚这样的小国家在应对不断变化的地缘政治经济格局时可能面临更严峻的现实。因此,东盟的团结和凝聚力对于确保对日益升级的中美战略竞争作出更统一的区域反应至关重要。
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Malaysia in Changing Geopolitical Economy: Navigating Great Power Competition between China and the United States
Abstract The past two years have witnessed escalating geopolitical tensions occurring not only in the political but also economic domains especially technology and global supply chains, infrastructure connectivity, trade and finance. With tensions between the US and China escalating on many fronts, Southeast Asia has become a focal point of strategic rivalry again as Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy 2022 attempts to rebuild the US-led order in Asia to blunt China’s growing influence in the region. A series of economic initiatives following his Indo-Pacific strategy focuses on reconfiguring the semiconductor global supply chain. In this context, the paper aims to examine how Malaysia cope with the complex patterns of cooperation, competition and conflict arising from the current shifts in the global geopolitics and geoeconomics. The paper benefits from the insights from the international political economy research which explores how the Malaysian government strives to reconcile domestic and international imperatives in navigating the changing global geopolitical economy, which can be perceived as both a threat as well as an opportunity by the state and non-state actors in the country. The question of whether hedging is tenable is undoubtedly contingent upon the extent of big power rivalry. Given the greater uncertainty over the pernicious effects of rising regional polarization and retreat from economic globalization, Malaysia will continue to maintain strategic ambiguity as long as US-China rivalry has not (yet) escalated into outright military conflict. Nevertheless, the paper concludes that the space to hedge may be squeezed since small power like Malaysia may face harsher realities as it navigates the changing geopolitical economy landscape. Hence, the ASEAN solidarity and cohesion is crucial to ensure a more unified regional response to the escalating Sino-American strategic competition.
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