Prediction of functional consequences of cerebral ischemic stroke one year after its occurrence

The aim —  investigation of independent prognostic factors of minimal dependence in everyday activities one year after ischemic stroke by developing a prognostic mathematical model. Materials and methods. The neurological and functional status of 150 patients (74 (49.3 %) women and 76 (50.7 %) men of mean age of (67.4 ± 0.7 years) with primary ischemic stroke and primary arterial hypertension in anamnesis was evaluated. Neurological deficit was evaluated by the NIHSS scale. The assessment of everyday life activity was provided by Bartel index (BI). The cognitive status was evaluated by MMSE scale. Diagnosis of hypertension was based on the results of clinical, instrumental examination and medical documentation. We applied daily blood pressure (BP) monitoring from the moment of admission every 4 hours for 6 days of acute period. The variability of SBP and DBP was determined by calculating the standard deviation for 6 days, as well as for the period from the first to the third and from the third to the sixth day. Results and discussion. A year after stroke, the median of the Barthel index values was 85, the minimum value was 45, the maximum — 100, the first quartile — 75, the third quartile — 95 points. Data on 105 patients with neurological deficit of moderate (82) and severe (23) degrees took part in the determination of the functional recovery prognostic predictors by BI. Of the 161 indicators that characterized the pathology and the results of an additional patient’s examination, 18 variables that had a reliable correlation with the BI score in a year were selected and involved in logistic regression analysis. According to the step­by­step analysis, (10 steps), the independent prognostic factors of minimal dependence in daily activities in a year were determined in patients with moderate and severe ischemic stroke: duration of hypertension (B coefficient = –0.11), thickness of the intima­media complex (B coefficient = –7.62), the MMSE score (B coefficient = 0.19), gender (B coefficient = –2.13), intake of sartans in combination with calcium antagonists or in monotherapy (B coefficient = –1.31), achievement of target BP in antihypertension therapy (its efficiency) (B coefficient = +2.95); constant — 7.43. The obtained model has a sensitivity of 95.3 %, a specificity of 88.9 % and a diagnostic accuracy of 93.4 %, an area under the ROC curve — 0.926 (95 % confidence interval: 0.881 — 0.972). Conclusions. The main tasks at the stage of rehabilitation of patients for achievement of a minimum functional dependence in a year in the case of moderate to severe ischemic stroke is to prevent the progression of the atherosclerotic process, improve cognitive functions and achieve the primary hypertension treatment effectiveness.