用汇总数据检验贸易条件下的非线性动力学:对经济增长模型的影响

IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics Pub Date : 2019-06-27 DOI:10.5755/J01.EE.30.3.23446
M. Škare, D. Tomić, Malgorzata Porada Rochon
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引用次数: 3

摘要

几十年来,世界贸易的平均增速几乎是世界总产出增速的两倍。自1980年代以来,国际贸易流量激增,但高收入和中等收入国家仍然是国际贸易的主要参与者。全球出口价格的有利变动导致发达国家和发展中国家贸易条件的类似变动,但仍未能阻止不发达国家贸易条件的潜在恶化。虽然我们可以在贸易条件的动态和较低的波动性中发现普遍的收敛性,但这仍然不能解释贸易条件的演变。我们仍然需要评估这个变量的移动是否是随机的。本文研究了各种(分组)国家贸易条件的长期汇总系列数据(1960 - 2015),以找出这些系列中是否存在非线性迹象。发现非线性的证据表明,包括贸易条件的经济模型可以通过从线性模型策略切换到非线性模型策略来改进。为此,我们使用BDS非参数测试,因为它是最流行的非线性测试之一。当应用于拟合模型的残差时,我们可以将其用作组合检验或缺失规格检验。研究结果否定了非线性假设,支持贸易条件的线性行为。
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Testing Nonlinear Dynamics in Terms of Trade with Aggregated Data: Implications for Economic Growth Models
For many decades, world trade has grown on average nearly twice as fast as total world output. International trade flows have exploded since the 1980s, however high and middle-income countries continue to make up the main players in international trade. Favorable movements in global export prices lead to similar movements in terms of trade in developed and developing countries, but it still did not stop the latent deterioration of terms of trade of undeveloped countries. Though we can detect general convergence in the dynamics and lower volatility of the terms of trade, this still does not explain us the evolution of the terms of trade. We still have to asses if the movements in this variable were random. This paper examines long time aggregated series data (1960 - 2015) of the terms of trade for the variety of (grouped) countries to find out if there are any signs of nonlinearity in these series. Finding evidence of nonlinearity suggests that economic models that include terms of trade can improve by switching from linear to nonlinear modeling strategy. For this purpose, we use BDS nonparametric test as it is one of the most popular tests for nonlinearity. We can use it as a portmanteau test or miss-specification test when applied to the residuals from a fitting model. Results reject the nonlinearity presumption going in favor of linear behavior of the terms of trade.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
3.60%
发文量
32
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