Short-term prediction of parking availability in an open parking lot

Abstract The parking of cars is a globally recognized problem, especially at locations where there is a high demand for empty parking spaces. Drivers tend to cruise additional distances while searching for empty parking spaces during peak hours leading to problems, such as pollution, congestion, and driver frustration. Providing short-term predictions of parking availability would facilitate the driver in making informed decisions and planning their arrival to be able to choose parking locations with higher availability. Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide short-term predictions of available parking spaces with a low volume of data. The open parking lot provides parking spaces free of charge and one such parking lot, located beside a shopping center, was selected for this study. Parking availability data for 21 days were collected where 19 days were used for training, while multiple periods of the remaining 2 days were used to test and evaluate the prediction methods. The test dataset consists of data from a weekday and a weekend. Based on the reviewed literature, three prediction methods suitable for short-term prediction were selected, namely, long short-term memory (LSTM), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX), and the Ensemble-based method. The LSTM method is a deep learning-based method, while SARIMAX is a regression-based method, and the Ensemble method is based on decision trees and random forest to provide predictions. The performance of the three prediction methods with a low volume of data and the use of visitor trends data as an exogenous variable was evaluated. Based on the test prediction results, the LSTM and Ensemble-based methods provided better short-term predictions at multiple times on a weekday, while the Ensemble-based method provided better predictions over the weekend. However, the use of visitor trend data did not facilitate improving the predictions of SARIMAX and the Ensemble-based method, while it improved the LSTM prediction for the weekend.