天然气市场对石油市场结构性冲击的反应

Won-Cheol Yun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了天然气价格对石油市场不同因素的响应。构建了以原油供应、全球经济指标、原油价格、天然气价格为内生变量的结构性VAR模型。使用1992年1月至2021年9月的月度样本数据。利用历史分解方法得到的结果表明,原油供应因素的贡献减小,而全球需求因素的贡献增大。此外,独特的原油市场因素也是重要的影响因素。
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The Responses of Natural Gas Market to the Structural Shocks in Oil Market
In this study, natural gas price responses to different factors of the oil market were analyzed. A structural VAR model was developed to include crude oil supply, global economic indicators, crude oil price, and natural gas price as endogenous variables. Sample monthly data from January 1992 to September 2021 were used. The results obtained using the historical decomposition method indicated that the contribution of crude oil supply decreased, whereas that of global demand factor increased. In addition, the unique crude oil market factor was also an important influence.
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