高性能计算在寿险合同偿付能力和盈利能力计算中的应用

Mark Tucker, J. M. Bull
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在英国,法律要求养老金提供者定期证明其偿付能力;有关如何证明偿付能力的规定正在发生变化。从历史上看,只用一组假设的“最佳估计”就足以报告偿付能力。新规定要求采用蒙特卡罗方法来发现最坏的情况,这种情况需要的计算能力超出目前业界可用的系统。本文旨在表明,新的法规可以通过摆脱当前的精算估值软件包和生产性能良好的从头算代码来满足,采用各种高性能计算技术。通过结合算法改进、串行优化和多核并行性,我们展示了比商业软件性能提高105倍以上的性能。我们表明,这使蒙特卡罗模拟在实用性的范围内,我们提出了进一步改进的可能性,例如使用gpu集群。我们还确定了高性能偿付能力和盈利能力计算的其他可能用例。
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The Application of High Performance Computing to Solvency and Profitability Calculations for Life Assurance Contracts
In the UK, pension providers are required by law to demonstrate solvency on a regular basis; the regulations governing how solvency is demonstrated are changing. Historically, it has been sufficient to report solvency using a single `best estimate' set of assumptions. The new regulations require a Monte Carlo approach to finding a worst-case scenario that requires computing power which is outside the systems currently available in the industry. This paper aims to show that the new regulations could be met by moving away from current actuarial valuation software packages and producing well-performing ab initio code, employing a variety of HPC techniques. Using a combination of algorithmic improvements, serial optimisations and multi-core parallelism, we demonstrate a performance improvement over commercial software of a factor of over 105. We show that this brings the Monte Carlo simulations within the bounds of practicality, and we suggest possibilities for further improvements, for example using clusters of GPUs. We also identify other possible use cases for high performance solvency and profitability calculations.
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