新冠肺炎疫情在俄罗斯五波发病中的流行过程特征

L. Karpova, A. Komissarov, K. Stolyarov, N. M. Popovtseva, T. P. Stolyarova, M. Y. Pelikh, D. Lioznov
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引用次数: 2

摘要

的目标。评估俄罗斯五波新冠肺炎疫情中每波疫情的流行程度。材料和方法。分析了48个城市(I型上升)至54个城市(V型上升)的整体人群和年龄组的COVID-19发病率、住院率和死亡率数据,以及俄罗斯冠状病毒基因组测序联盟网站的数据。俄罗斯COVID-19发病率的前5波过程的性质仍然起伏不定。发病率的波动始于大城市,在不同的发病率波动中,整个FD的传播方向不同。基因测序结果显示,冠状病毒主要基因变异参与了3-4波疾病的病因学。一些早期发现的基因变异在下一波中得到了最大的分布。在俄罗斯,武汉毒株的欧洲后裔在I波、II波及其子基因变异(68.5%)、III - AY.122(80.1%)、IV - AY.122(84.7%)和V波- Omicron(76.7%)中占主导地位。每一波COVID-19发病率的特征取决于显性基因变异的特性:它们在人与人之间传播的能力和毒力。在Omicron基因变异发病的V波期间,FD的传播速度、各年龄组的易感性和流行强度最大。死亡率在I波发病时最低,在IV波发病时死亡率最高,而在V波发病时死亡率较低。一年中季节的影响体现在夏季,整个俄罗斯联邦(紧随大城市之后)的2019冠状病毒病发病率比大多数联邦区上升得更早,但发病率较低。
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Features of the COVID-19 Epidemic Process in Each of the of the Five Waves of Morbidity in Russia
Aim. To assess the intensity of the epidemic process in each of the five waves of COVID-19 in Russia.Materials and methods. The data on morbidity, hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 of the population as a whole and by age groups from 48 (in the I rise) to 54 cities (in the V wave) and data from the website of the Russian consortium for sequencing coronavirus genomes were analyzed.Results. The nature of the course of the first 5 waves in the incidence of COVID-19 in Russia remains undulating. The waves in morbidity began in megacities, and the direction of spread across the FD differed in different waves of morbidity. The results of gene sequencing showed the participation of the main genovariants of the coronavirus in the etiology of diseases up to 3-4 waves. Some genovariants identified earlier received maximum distribution in the following wave. In Russia, the European descendants of the Wuhan strain (74.4%) were dominant in the I wave in morbidity, in the II wave – its daughter genovariants (68.5%), in the III – AY.122 (80.1%), in the IV – AY.122 (84.7%) and in the V wave – Omicron (76.7%).Conclusions. The features of each wave in the incidence of COVID-19 depended on the properties of the dominant genovariants: their ability to transmit from person to person and virulence. The rate of spread of the epidemic by FD, the susceptibility of all age groups and the intensity of epidemics were maximal during the period of the V wave in morbidity with the Omicron gene variant. Mortality was minimal in the I wave of morbidity, maximal in the IV with AY.122 strains and low in the V wave with Omicron genovariants. The influence of the season of the year was manifested in the summer season by an increase in the incidence of COVID-19 earlier in the Russian Federation as a whole (immediately after megacities) than in most federal districts, but with a lower incidence.
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