支持Moodle教学中的神经网络预测辍学和学校失败

Alejandro Alayola Sansores
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摘要

人工智能(AI)设计模拟人类智能过程的计算机工具,包括学习、推理和自我纠正。在教育领域,人工智能通过神经网络来促进对学生进步的评估,神经网络可以根据学生以前取得的成绩来调整测试。这项工作的目的是设计一个人工神经网络(ANN)来分析墨西哥国立大学医学院生物医学信息学I专业学生的表现,以估计通过、不及格和退学的概率。材料和方法:使用Python设计了一个神经网络,由3个完全连接的层组成,使用了墨西哥国立大学医学院2019年、2020年和2021年在Moodle生物医学信息学平台I上大约2000名学生的性能信息。训练神经网络来估计学生的可能表现,执行2500次,平均绝对误差水平为0.0158。通过confusión矩阵对及格和不及格进行分类,kappa准确率为0.947。为了可视化,设计了一个带有交通灯系统的网络系统,以允许生物医学信息系的评估和教学协调员查阅从网络获得的结果。讨论:网络必须继续输入受控数据,即专门用于网络训练的数据,因为输入数据的质量直接决定了过程结束时获得的数据的质量,影响网络的目标实现。结论:仍有很多东西需要学习和工作要做,但跨学科的努力将使我们能够改进我们的系统,并最终以最好的方式支持未来医生的教育过程。关键词:神经网络;教育;Moodle;辍学;失败;人工智能;机器学习。
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Redes neuronales de apoyo en la docencia bajo Moodle para predicción de deserción y reprobación escolar
Artificial Intelligence (AI) designs computer tools that simulate human intelligence processes, including learning, reasoning, and selfcorrection. In the educational field, AI facilitates the evaluation of student progress thro ugh neural networks that adjust tests to previously achieved achievements. The purpose of this work was to design an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that will analyze the performance of students in the subject of Biomedical Informatics I at the Facultad de Medicina of the UNAM in order to estimate the probabilities of passing, failing, and dropping out. Materials and methods: A neural network was designed in Python, consisting of 3 fully connected layers, using performance information from approximately 2000 students in the Moodle platform for Biomedical Informatics I during 2019, 2020, and 2021 at the Facultad de Medicina of UNAM. The neural network was trained to estimate the probable performance of the students, executing 2500 epochs with a mean absolute error level of 0.0158. A kappa accuracy rate of 0.947 was obtained through a confusión matrix when classifying between passing and failing grades. For visualization, a web system with a traffic light system was designed to allow evaluation and teaching coordinators from the Department of Biomedical Informatics to consult the results obtained from the network. Discussion: The network must continue to be fed with controlled data, meaning data that is specifically worked for the network’s training, since the quality of the data in the input directly determines the quality of the data obtained at the end of the process, affecting the network’s objective attainment. Conclusion: There is still much to learn and work to be done, but the interdisciplinary effort will allow us to improve our system and ultimately support the educational process of future doctors in the best way possible. Keywords: Neural networks; education; Moodle; dropout; failure; AI; machine learning.
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