{"title":"是什么推动了欧元区的盈亏平衡通胀率?","authors":"Matteo Ciccarelli, Juan A. Garcia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1316216","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of potential explanatory variables through Bayesian model selection techniques and document their explanatory power at different horizons. At short horizons, actual inflation dynamics is the main determinant of BEIRs. At long horizons, financial variables (i.e. term spread, bond market volatility) become increasingly relevant, but confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. JEL Classification: C11, C52, E31","PeriodicalId":47599,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Finance","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2009-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"68","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What Drives Euro Area Break-Even Inflation Rates?\",\"authors\":\"Matteo Ciccarelli, Juan A. Garcia\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.1316216\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of potential explanatory variables through Bayesian model selection techniques and document their explanatory power at different horizons. At short horizons, actual inflation dynamics is the main determinant of BEIRs. At long horizons, financial variables (i.e. term spread, bond market volatility) become increasingly relevant, but confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. JEL Classification: C11, C52, E31\",\"PeriodicalId\":47599,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Finance\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2009-01-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"68\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1316216\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1316216","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
The yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds (or break-even inflation rates, BEIR) is a fundamental indicator of inflation expectations (and associated premia). This paper investigates which macroeconomic and financial variables explain BEIRs. We evaluate a large number of potential explanatory variables through Bayesian model selection techniques and document their explanatory power at different horizons. At short horizons, actual inflation dynamics is the main determinant of BEIRs. At long horizons, financial variables (i.e. term spread, bond market volatility) become increasingly relevant, but confidence and cyclical indicators remain important. JEL Classification: C11, C52, E31
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The European Journal of Finance publishes a full range of research into theoretical and empirical topics in finance. The emphasis is on issues that reflect European interests and concerns. The journal aims to publish work that is motivated by significant issues in the theory or practice of finance. The journal promotes communication between finance academics and practitioners by providing a vehicle for the publication of research into European issues, stimulating research in finance within Europe, encouraging the international exchange of ideas, theories and the practical application of methodologies and playing a positive role in the development of the infrastructure for finance research.
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