估计《巴黎协定》97个缔约国的潜在二氧化碳减排量

IF 2.3 4区 经济学 0 ECONOMICS Climate Change Economics Pub Date : 2021-04-06 DOI:10.1142/S2010007821500044
Yan Li, Yigang Wei
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引用次数: 8

摘要

“共同但有区别的责任”要求《巴黎协定》参与国明确本国减排重点,结合本国国情制定切实可行的方案。本文旨在估算《巴黎协定》缔约方1991-2014年期间的CO2排放效率和减排潜力,并找出影响CO2排放效率的关键因素。采用了非径向方向距离函数、元前沿法和自引导截断回归模型。主要结论如下:(1)中国的年减排潜力最大,为21331.3亿吨。(2)技术差距是影响低收入群体(82.87%)和中低收入群体(66.01%)二氧化碳减排潜力的主要因素,应通过技术创新提高碳排放效率;其他组别的潜在二氧化碳减排量主要是管理效率低下的结果(中高收入国家和高收入国家的潜在减排量分别有57.52%和78.38%来自管理效率低下)。因此,在特定收入群体中,一些国家表现出不同的减排重点。(3)对CO2排放效率影响因素的回归分析表明,全要素生产率的提高和管理水平的提高可以提高CO2排放效率。本研究可能是第一次尝试分解这些国家的二氧化碳减排潜力,并为每个国家提供有针对性的、有效的减排重点。
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ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION IN 97 CONTRACTING COUNTRIES OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“The common but differentiated responsibilities” requires that participating countries in the Paris Agreement need to clarify their national emission reduction priorities and develop practical and feasible plans based on their local conditions. This paper aims to estimate the CO2 emission efficiency and the potential emission reduction of the Paris Agreement contracting countries and identify the key influencing factors of CO2 emission efficiency for the period of 1991–2014. A nonradial directional distance function, the metafrontier approach, and the bootstrapped truncated regression model are used. The following are the main conclusions: (1) China makes the highest annual potential CO2 emission reduction of 2133.13 billion tons. (2) The technology gap appears to be a major contributor to the potential CO2 emission reductions in the low income group (82.87%) and the lower–middle income group (66.01%), and thus these economies should pursue technological innovation to improve carbon emission efficiency; the potential CO2 emission reductions in other groups are mainly the result of management inefficiency (with 57.52% and 78.38% of potential emission reductions by the upper–middle income and high income countries coming from management inefficiency). Therefore, some countries in the specific income group exhibit different emission reduction focus. (3) According to a regression analysis on the CO2 emission efficiency contributing factors, the progress of total factor productivity and improvement of management level can improve the CO2 emission efficiency. This study might be the first attempt to decompose the potential CO2 emission reduction of these countries and provides each country with targeted, effective emission reduction priorities.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
17.40%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: Climate Change Economics (CCE) publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to analyses of mitigation, adaptation, impacts, and other issues related to the policy and management of greenhouse gases. CCE is specifically devoted to papers in economics although it is understood that authors may need to rely on other fields for important insights. The journal is interested in papers examining the issue at every scale from local to global and papers from around the world are encouraged. CCE is also interested in both original research and review papers and welcomes comments discussing previous articles.
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