通过聚合窗口观察经济变量的含义

C.W.J. Granger
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引用次数: 18

摘要

考虑了各种横截面和时间聚集情况。结果表明,如果在总体水平上发现协整,那么严格地说,在微观水平上隐含了许多令人惊讶的约束。但是,建议使用公共因子进行适当的近似。结果表明,序列在生成时段可能不协整,但在时间聚集后可能发生协整。出现这种可能性的原因是,时间聚合可以将季节性频率的坚果根移动到零频率。最后,考虑了收入分配聚集的可能性,并证明了严格意义上,帕累托分布不具备必要的性质。
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Implications of seeing economic variables through an aggregation window

A variety of cross-sectional and temporal aggregation cases are considered. It is shown that if cointegration is found at an aggregate level then, strictly, many surprising constraints are implied at the micro level. However, a suitable approximation is suggested using common factors. It is shown that series may not be cointegrated at the time period of generation, but that after temporal aggregation cointegration could occur. This possibility arises because temporal aggregation can move a nuit root at a seasonal frequency to the zero frequency. Finally, the possibility of aggregating income distributions is considered and it is shown that, strictly, the Pareto distribution does not have the required property.

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