基于农场模式的风险管理策略对混合农场类型的可能影响

IF 1.2 Q4 BUSINESS Business Systems Research Journal Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.2478/bsrj-2022-0022
Jure Brečko, J. Žgajnar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要背景:随着对个体层面农场微观模拟和分析的需求日益增长,农场层面模型已成为农业经济学家的重要工具。目的:在本文中,我们提出了一个数学模型,其主要目标是通过降低风险来评估生产的有效性和各种可能的农业控股策略。与此同时,我们也对这些战略的环境影响感兴趣。后者是用温室气体排放指标来衡量的。方法:采用基于线性规划的模型,并辅以QRP进行风险分析。该方法在中型混合农业控股公司进行了测试,鉴于斯洛文尼亚正在发生的结构变化,该公司经常面临挑战。结果:结果表明,这样的农场可以通过更有效的风险管理策略来改善财务结果。通过稍微修改生产计划,在差不多相同的风险下,预期毛利率(EGM)最多可以增加10%。然而,如果农民愿意多样化生产计划并承担更高的风险(+23%),农场的EGM可能会增加18%。这种生产计划的变化也会产生17%的温室气体排放,以农场水平的二氧化碳当量公斤计算,因为BL和C方案的相对比例相同,为3.12温室气体二氧化碳当量/欧元。结论:通过本研究,我们得出多元化对混合农场具有积极的潜力,并且农场可以获得更好的财务结果。通过管理的灵活性,农民也可以实现更高的风险管理效率和更好的农场效果。
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Possible Impact of Risk Management Strategies with Farm Model on a Mixed Farm Type
Abstract Background: Farm-level models have become an important tool for agricultural economists as there is a growing demand for microsimulation and analysis of farms at the individual level. Objectives: In this paper, we present a mathematical model with the main objective of assessing the effectiveness of production and various possible strategies for agricultural holdings by reducing risks. At the same time, we were also interested in the environmental impacts of such strategies. The latter was measured using the indicator of GHG emissions. Methods/Approach: The model applied is based on linear programming and upgraded with QRP for risk analysis. The approach was tested on medium size mixed agricultural holding, which often faces challenges in light of the structural changes taking place in Slovenia. Results: The results suggest that such a farm could improve financial results with a more efficient risk management strategy. With a slightly modified production plan, the expected gross margin (EGM) can be increased by up to 10% at more or less the same risk. However, if the farmer is willing to diversify the production plan and take a higher risk (+23%), the farm’s EGM could increase by up to 18%. This kind of change in the production plan would also generate 17% more GHG emissions in total, calculated as kg equivalent of CO2 at the farm level, as both BL and C scenarios have the same relative ratio at 3.12 GHG CO2 eq. /EUR. Conclusions: Through this research, we concluded that diversification has a positive potential on a mixed farm, and the farm could achieve better financial results. With flexibility in management, the farmer could also achieve higher risk management efficiency and better farm results.
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CiteScore
3.00
自引率
6.70%
发文量
0
审稿时长
22 weeks
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