{"title":"相关性对P估计的影响[j]","authors":"D. Patil, U. V. Naik-Nimbalkar, M. M. Kale","doi":"10.17713/ajs.v51i4.1293","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We consider an expression for the probability R=P(Y<X) where the random variables X and Y denote strength and stress, respectively. Our aim is to study the effect of the dependency between X and Y on R. We assume that X and Y follow exponential distributions and their dependency is modeled by a copula with the dependency parameter theta. We obtain a closed-form expression for R for Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM), Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Gumbel's bivariate exponential copulas and compute R for Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula using a Monte-Carlo integration technique. We plot a graph of R versus theta to study the effect of dependency on R. We estimate R by plugging in the estimates of the marginal parameters and theta in its expression. The estimates of the marginal parameters are based on the marginal likelihood. The estimates of theta are obtained from two different methods; one is based on the conditional likelihood and the other on the method of moments using Blomqvist's beta. Asymptotic distribution of both the estimators of R is obtained. For illustration purpose, we apply our results to a real data set.","PeriodicalId":51761,"journal":{"name":"Austrian Journal of Statistics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effect of Dependency on the Estimation of P[Y\",\"authors\":\"D. Patil, U. V. Naik-Nimbalkar, M. M. Kale\",\"doi\":\"10.17713/ajs.v51i4.1293\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We consider an expression for the probability R=P(Y<X) where the random variables X and Y denote strength and stress, respectively. Our aim is to study the effect of the dependency between X and Y on R. We assume that X and Y follow exponential distributions and their dependency is modeled by a copula with the dependency parameter theta. We obtain a closed-form expression for R for Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM), Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Gumbel's bivariate exponential copulas and compute R for Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula using a Monte-Carlo integration technique. We plot a graph of R versus theta to study the effect of dependency on R. We estimate R by plugging in the estimates of the marginal parameters and theta in its expression. The estimates of the marginal parameters are based on the marginal likelihood. The estimates of theta are obtained from two different methods; one is based on the conditional likelihood and the other on the method of moments using Blomqvist's beta. Asymptotic distribution of both the estimators of R is obtained. For illustration purpose, we apply our results to a real data set.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51761,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Austrian Journal of Statistics\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Austrian Journal of Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v51i4.1293\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Austrian Journal of Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v51i4.1293","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
期刊介绍：
The Austrian Journal of Statistics is an open-access journal (without any fees) with a long history and is published approximately quarterly by the Austrian Statistical Society. Its general objective is to promote and extend the use of statistical methods in all kind of theoretical and applied disciplines. The Austrian Journal of Statistics is indexed in many data bases, such as Scopus (by Elsevier), Web of Science - ESCI by Clarivate Analytics (formely Thompson & Reuters), DOAJ, Scimago, and many more. The current estimated impact factor (via Publish or Perish) is 0.775, see HERE, or even more indices HERE. Austrian Journal of Statistics ISNN number is 1026597X Original papers and review articles in English will be published in the Austrian Journal of Statistics if judged consistently with these general aims. All papers will be refereed. Special topics sections will appear from time to time. Each section will have as a theme a specialized area of statistical application, theory, or methodology. Technical notes or problems for considerations under Shorter Communications are also invited. A special section is reserved for book reviews.
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