模拟音乐节的大规模疏散

E. Ronchi , F. Nieto Uriz , X. Criel , P. Reilly
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引用次数: 49

摘要

本文探讨了使用多智能体连续疏散模型来表示音乐节上的大规模疏散场景。使用Pathfinder模型模拟了一个可容纳65,000人的音乐节区域。为了探索在此类事件中疏散模型的能力,开发了三种疏散场景,即(1)由于船上发生火灾,节日区域的一部分大约有15,000人进行预防性疏散,(2)由于炸弹威胁,整个节日区域(65,000人)全部疏散的升级场景。(3)由于船舶发动机过热造成爆炸威胁,涉及整个节日区域(65,000人)全部撤离的级联场景。本研究表明,通过对疏散模型生成的人员疏散时间曲线的分析,再加上对模拟疏散场景的可视化分析,可以识别影响疏散过程的主要因素(例如,延误时间、出口与出口宽度相关的过度拥挤等),以及可以提高安全性的潜在措施。
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Modelling large-scale evacuation of music festivals

This paper explores the use of multi-agent continuous evacuation modelling for representing large-scale evacuation scenarios at music festivals. A 65,000 people capacity music festival area was simulated using the model Pathfinder. Three evacuation scenarios were developed in order to explore the capabilities of evacuation modelling during such incidents, namely (1) a preventive evacuation of a section of the festival area containing approximately 15,000 people due to a fire breaking out on a ship, (2) an escalating scenario involving the total evacuation of the entire festival area (65,000 people) due to a bomb threat, and (3) a cascading scenario involving the total evacuation of the entire festival area (65,000 people) due to the threat of an explosion caused by a ship engine overheating. This study suggests that the analysis of the people-evacuation time curves produced by evacuation models, coupled with a visual analysis of the simulated evacuation scenarios, allows for the identification of the main factors affecting the evacuation process (e.g., delay times, overcrowding at exits in relation to exit widths, etc.) and potential measures that could improve safety.

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