玉米生产中一些农业技术因素的经济分析——以匈牙利为例

Attila Bai, Zoltán Gabnai, I. Kovách, Ibolya Czibere, J. Nagy, D. Sulyok, Donika Maloku, P. Balogh
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摘要

本文重点对2015-2017年在德国德布勒森大学农业与食品科学与环境管理学院Latokep试验场进行的多因子玉米生产试验的生产技术成果进行了经济和统计评价。考察的农业技术因素包括灌溉、前茬、耕作、作物密度、杂交品种和氮素供应,同时考虑了不同作物年数的影响。在统计评价中,除了描述性统计方法外,我们还使用了多元回归分析。在评价过程中,我们考察了三种耕作方式和作物年考虑不同的模型。在我们的最佳拟合模型中,这些因素对产量值的变化负责71%。在经济评价过程中进行了效率分析和比较分析。从所研究的三个年份的平均值来看,可以认为养分供应和作物年份对产量有显著影响,而灌溉对产量的影响很小。然而,全球变暖可能在未来证明灌溉是合理的,不仅从生物学的角度来看,而且从经济的角度来看。理想耕作方式也受作物年份的影响较大。总的来说,从经济的角度来看,在研究的耕作制度中,深埋被证明是最好的。我们的调查证实,在更有利的市场条件下进行集约化耕作是更好的。如果忽略玉米和化肥价格的极端变化,施氮的最佳值可能超出了我们研究的范围。JEL分类:Q16, Q12, Q13, O32
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Economic analysis of some agrotechnical factors in maize production - a Hungarian case study
This paper focuses on the economic and statistical evaluation of the production technology findings of the polyfactorial maize production experiments carried out between 2015-2017 at the Latokep Experiment Site of the University of Debrecen, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management. The examined agrotechnical factors included irrigation, previous crop, tillage, crop density, hybrid and N nutrient supply, while the effect of different crop years was taken into consideration. In addition to descriptive statistical methods, we used multivariate regression analysis during the statistical evaluation. In the course of the evaluation, we examined three models that differed in terms of tillage methods and the consideration of crop year. In our best fit model, the factors were 71% responsible for the change in yield value. We carried out efficiency and comparative analyses in the course of the economic evaluation.Averaged over the three examined years, it can be stated that nutrient supply and crop year had an outstanding effect on yield, while irrigation had a minimal effect. However, global warming may justify irrigation in the future, not only from a biological point of view, but also from an economic aspect.Ideal tillage is also greatly affected by crop year, too. Altogether, of the examined tillage systems, subsoiling proved to be the best from an economic point of view.Our investigations confirm that it is better to perform intensive farming under more favourable market conditions. The optimum of N fertilisation is probably outside of the range we examined, if the extreme changes in maize and fertiliser prices are ignored. JEL Classification: Q16, Q12, Q13, O32
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