Ångström-Prescott系数的一般公式:Côte科特迪瓦的新方法

M. Djoman, F. W. Fassinou, A. Memelèdje
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在这项研究中,我们使用科特迪瓦九(9)个气象站校准的年度埃斯特-普雷斯科特(AP)系数来形式化两个通用方程,将它们表示为纬度和海拔的函数。目的是形式化可用于增加全球水平辐照度密度的埃-普雷斯科特系数的一般方程。将所得的Angstrom-Prescott系数与均方根误差(RMSE)、平均偏倚误差(MBE)、平均绝对偏倚误差(MABE)、NSE系数和统计t检验(t-stat)校准的值进行比较,系数a和系数b分别为0.00935143、-0.00042828、0.00825164、0.99734601、0.12129825和0.00633772、-0.00017254、0.00471422、0.7653197、0.072056623。为了改进系数a的估计,我们用二阶多项式函数把它和系数b联系起来。该方程导致系数a的绝对估计误差显著减小,从而使RMSE和MABE值较低。RMSE从0.00935143下降到0.00498464,MABE从0.00825164下降到0.00346367。两个方程的统计t检验(t-stat)的低值(a为0.45735957,b为0.07205623)表明模型与数据吻合良好。高NSE系数(a为0.99924593,b为0.7653197)也证实了估计和校准的年度埃斯特-普雷斯科特系数之间的良好一致性,建议在科特迪瓦的任何地点使用该模型来预测全球水平辐照度。
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General Formulation of Ångström-Prescott Coefficients: A New Approach for Côte d’Ivoire
In this study, we used calibrated annual Angstrom-Prescott (AP) coefficients of nine (9) weather stations in Cote d'Ivoire to formalize two general equations expressing them as a function of the latitude and altitude. The aim is formalizing the general equations of Angstrom-Prescott coefficients that can be used to increase the density of global horizontal irradiance. The Angstrom-Prescott coefficients thus obtained were compared with the values calibrated using the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean bias error (MBE), the mean absolute bias error (MABE), the NSE coefficient and the statistical t-test (t-stat) with the following results for coefficients a and b respectively: 0.00935143, -0.00042828, 0.00825164, 0.99734601, 0.12129825 and 0.00633772, -0.00017254, 0.00471422, 0.7653197, 0.072056623. To improve the estimation of coefficient a, we linked it to the coefficient b by a polynomial function of degree two. This equation led to a significant decrease in the absolute estimation error of coefficient a resulting in low values of RMSE and MABE. RMSE decreased from 0.00935143 to 0.00498464 and MABE decreased from 0.00825164 to 0.00346367. The low values of the statistical t-test (t-stat) (0.45735957 for a and 0.07205623 for b) for the two equations show that the model agrees well with the data. The good agreement between the annual Angstrom-Prescott coefficients estimated and calibrated also confirmed by high NSE coefficients (0.99924593 for a and 0.7653197 for b) recommends the use of this model in any site in Cote d'Ivoire to predict global horizontal irradiance.
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