增加获得住房抵押贷款的机会会降低当地犯罪率吗?圣地亚哥县的证据

W. Bunting
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究提供了增加获得住房抵押贷款对当地犯罪率的影响的估计,并使用全国住房抵押贷款发放量作为当地住房抵押贷款发放量的转移份额工具。研究的重点是圣地亚哥县从2007年第一季度到2013年第一季度。回归估计表明,在这段时间内,住房抵押贷款的增加对当地犯罪率产生了统计上显著的负面影响:基线规范表明,住房抵押贷款发放量每增加10个百分点,总犯罪事件的增长就会减少约2.75个百分点。这一发现对于不同的模型规范是可靠的。
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Does Increased Access to Home Mortgage Money Decrease Local Crime Rates? Evidence from San Diego County

This study provides estimates of the impact of increased access to home mortgage credit on local crime rates and uses national home mortgage loan origination volume as a shift-share instrument for local home mortgage loan origination volume. The focus of the study is San Diego County from 2007-Q1 to 2013-Q1. The regression estimates indicate that increased access to home mortgage loans during this time period had a statistically significant negative impact on local crime rates: the baseline specification suggests that a ten percentage point increase in the growth in home mortgage loan originations decreases the growth in total crime incidents by approximately 2.75 percentage points. This finding is robust to different model specifications.
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