新冠肺炎疫情期间全球股市联动影响研究

Li Cheng, Jermoe Kueh Swee Hui
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摘要

新冠肺炎疫情给世界经济带来巨大波动,全球股市表现明显。本文在计量经济学假设的基础上,解释了全球股票市场的共同运动机制,并利用VAR和DCC-GARCH模型对样本国家的市场收益进行了描述性统计分析,检验了市场收益的共同运动。结果表明,在所有样本国家中,巴西股市波动最大。同时,疫情爆发后,VIX和WTI对动态相关系数的影响增强,表现出正向显著的影响,从而加强了全球股市的走势。
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A Research on the Impact of Global Stock Market Co-movement during Covid-19 Epidemic
Covid-19 has brought huge fluctuations to world economy and such volatilityis evidently indicated by global stock market. In light of econometric hypotheses, this paper explained the comovement mechanism of global stock markets, made descriptive statistical analysis to the market returns of sample countries with VAR and DCC-GARCH models, and examined the comovement of market returns. The result shows that stock market in Brazil was the most volatile among all sample countries. Meanwhile, after the outbreak, VIX and WTI’s influence on dynamic correlation coefficients increased, showing a positive and significant impact and thereby strengthening the comovement of global stock markets.  
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