大气参数有限可用性导致晴空太阳辐照度模拟中的不确定性

E. Carstea, M. Paulescu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要近年来,基于地面和卫星的大气参数测量网络的发展取得了很大进展,这些网络可以作为晴空参数模型的输入。然而,由于时间采样小或缺乏原位数据,一些参数可能仍然从模型输入中缺失。本文研究了当输入有限时,参数模型估算晴空太阳辐照度的精度问题。这项研究是利用罗马尼亚INOE-Magurele站记录的高质量辐射测量和大气数据进行的。研究了七种不同的情景。在每种情况下,晴空太阳辐照度模型都假定输入中缺少某些参数。结果定量地证实了气溶胶在建立晴空条件下太阳辐照度估算精度方面的主导作用。无法获得测量的Ångström浊度系数可能导致直接正常/漫射太阳辐照度估计的不确定度增加两倍/三倍。
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Uncertainties in Clear-Sky Solar Irradiance Modeling Induced by the Limited Availability of the Atmospheric Parameters
Abstract In the recent years, great progress has been made in developing terrestrial and satellite-based networks for the measurement of atmospheric parameters, which serve as inputs in clear sky parametric models. However, some parameters may still be missing from the model input due to small temporal sampling or lack of in situ data. This paper presents a case study on the accuracy of the clear-sky solar irradiance estimation by a parametric model, when the availability of inputs is limited. The study was conducted with high-quality radiometric and atmospheric data recorded by the INOE-Magurele station, Romania. Seven different scenarios were studied. In each scenario the clear-sky solar irradiance model was run assuming that certain parameters are missing from the input. The results quantitatively confirm the dominant role of aerosols in establishing the accuracy of solar irradiance estimation under clear sky conditions. The unavailability of the measured Ångström turbidity coefficient may lead to a twofold/threefold increase in the uncertainty of direct-normal/diffuse solar irradiance estimation.
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