基于ARIMA模型的生鲜农产品需求预测

广东农业科学 Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI:10.19026/AJFST.5.3172

Haoxiong Yang, Jing Hu

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引用次数: 9

摘要

最近，新鲜农产品的价格有涨有跌。为了准确预测农业预采需求，本文建立了基于ARIMA的预采需求预测模型。通过对原因的分析，可以发现市场上存在着信息不对称和供需不平衡的现象。生鲜农产品ARIMA模型可以对生鲜农产品的需求进行预测，为农户提供一定的指导。结果表明，预测值与实际数据比较，效果良好。那么这个模型就可用了。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Forecasting of Fresh Agricultural Products Demand Based on the ARIMA Model

The price of fresh agricultural products changes up and down recently. In order to accurately forecast the agricultural precuts demand, a forecasting model based on ARIMA is provided in this study. It can be found that asymmetric information and unbalance about supply and demand exist in the market through analyzing the reasons. The ARIMA model for fresh agricultural products can forecast the demand in order to providing some guides for farmers. The results show that the predictive value are in good condition when compare with the actual data. Then this model is available.

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