东南亚股票市场的特质波动率和横截面股票收益

G. Nartea, B. Ward, L. Yao
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引用次数: 62

摘要

我们研究了特质风险在马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾五个东盟市场中的作用。我们研究的动机是Ang等人(2006年,2009年)的发现,即在发达市场中,特质波动率与1个月前的股票回报之间存在“令人费解的”负相关关系,并暗示这些结果在其他市场中普遍存在。相比之下,我们没有发现这些亚洲股市存在特殊波动之谜的证据;相反,我们记录了马来西亚、新加坡、泰国和印度尼西亚的特质波动率与回报之间的正相关关系,而菲律宾则没有关系。这种特殊的波动率交易策略可以在马来西亚、新加坡、泰国以及在一定程度上在印度尼西亚带来可观的交易利润。我们的研究强调了这样一个事实,即将在发达股票市场获得的实证结果推广到新兴市场可能会产生误导。
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Idiosyncratic Volatility and Cross‐Sectional Stock Returns in Southeast Asian Stock Markets
We examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in five ASEAN markets of Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Our research was motivated by the findings of Ang et al. (2006, 2009) of a ‘puzzling’ negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and 1‐month ahead stock returns in developed markets and the suggestion of the ubiquity of these results in other markets. In contrast, we find no evidence of an idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in these Asian stock markets; instead, we document a positive relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and returns in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia and no relationship in the Philippines. The idiosyncratic volatility trading strategy could result in significant trading profits in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and to some extent in Indonesia. Our study underscores the fact that generalizing empirical results obtained in developed stock markets to new and emerging markets could potentially be misleading.
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