{"title":"为什么2019年厄尔尼诺Niño期间巴西东北部北部的降雨量高于平均水平?","authors":"Felipe M. de Andrade, V. A. Godoi, J. Aravéquia","doi":"10.3390/meteorology2030019","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite rainfall pattern was observed during an El Niño episode. Here, we explore the mechanisms that overwhelmed typical El Niño-related conditions and resulted in positive rainfall anomalies (above-average rainfall) in NNEB. We focus on the austral autumn when El Niño is most prone to rainfall anomalies in the region. The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite data, reanalysis data, and modelled data derived from a dry linear baroclinic model, allowed us to identify that the austral autumn 2019 above-average rainfall in NNEB was likely associated with four combined factors; these are (1) the weak intensity of the 2019 El Niño; (2) the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode; (3) local and remote diabatic heating anomalies, especially over the western South Pacific and tropical South Atlantic, which resulted in anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the upper and lower troposphere, respectively, over the tropical South Atlantic; and (4) sub-seasonal atmospheric convection anomalies over the western South Pacific, which reinforced the low-frequency convection signal over that region. This latter factor suggests the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall in NNEB during the first ten days of March 2019. We discuss these mechanisms in detail and provide evidence that, even during an El Niño event, above-average rainfall in NNEB in the austral autumn may occur, and its modulation is not limited to the influence of a single climate phenomenon. Our results may assist in the planning of several crucial activities, such as water resources management and agriculture.","PeriodicalId":100061,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Meteorology","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño?\",\"authors\":\"Felipe M. de Andrade, V. A. Godoi, J. 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The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite data, reanalysis data, and modelled data derived from a dry linear baroclinic model, allowed us to identify that the austral autumn 2019 above-average rainfall in NNEB was likely associated with four combined factors; these are (1) the weak intensity of the 2019 El Niño; (2) the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode; (3) local and remote diabatic heating anomalies, especially over the western South Pacific and tropical South Atlantic, which resulted in anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the upper and lower troposphere, respectively, over the tropical South Atlantic; and (4) sub-seasonal atmospheric convection anomalies over the western South Pacific, which reinforced the low-frequency convection signal over that region. This latter factor suggests the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall in NNEB during the first ten days of March 2019. We discuss these mechanisms in detail and provide evidence that, even during an El Niño event, above-average rainfall in NNEB in the austral autumn may occur, and its modulation is not limited to the influence of a single climate phenomenon. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
El Niño通常与巴西东北北部(NNEB)的负降雨异常(低于平均降雨量)有关。然而,在2019年的厄尔尼诺Niño事件期间观察到相反的降雨模式。在这里,我们探讨了克服典型El Niño-related条件并导致NNEB正降雨异常(高于平均降雨量)的机制。我们将重点放在厄尔尼诺Niño最容易出现降雨异常的南方秋季。对几个数据集的分析,包括气象站数据、卫星数据、再分析数据和来自干线性斜压模型的建模数据,使我们能够确定NNEB 2019年秋季南部高于平均水平的降雨量可能与四个综合因素有关;这些是(1)2019年厄尔尼诺Niño弱强度;(2)大西洋经向模态负相;(3)局地和远地非绝热加热异常,特别是南太平洋西部和热带南大西洋,导致热带南大西洋对流层上层和下层分别出现反气旋和气旋环流;(4)南太平洋西部的次季节大气对流异常,强化了该地区的低频对流信号。后一个因素表明了2019年3月上旬麦登-朱利安涛动对NNEB降水的影响。我们详细讨论了这些机制,并提供证据表明,即使在El Niño事件期间,NNEB南部秋季也可能出现高于平均水平的降雨,其调节并不局限于单一气候现象的影响。我们的结果可能有助于规划若干关键活动,例如水资源管理和农业。
Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño?
El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite rainfall pattern was observed during an El Niño episode. Here, we explore the mechanisms that overwhelmed typical El Niño-related conditions and resulted in positive rainfall anomalies (above-average rainfall) in NNEB. We focus on the austral autumn when El Niño is most prone to rainfall anomalies in the region. The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite data, reanalysis data, and modelled data derived from a dry linear baroclinic model, allowed us to identify that the austral autumn 2019 above-average rainfall in NNEB was likely associated with four combined factors; these are (1) the weak intensity of the 2019 El Niño; (2) the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode; (3) local and remote diabatic heating anomalies, especially over the western South Pacific and tropical South Atlantic, which resulted in anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the upper and lower troposphere, respectively, over the tropical South Atlantic; and (4) sub-seasonal atmospheric convection anomalies over the western South Pacific, which reinforced the low-frequency convection signal over that region. This latter factor suggests the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall in NNEB during the first ten days of March 2019. We discuss these mechanisms in detail and provide evidence that, even during an El Niño event, above-average rainfall in NNEB in the austral autumn may occur, and its modulation is not limited to the influence of a single climate phenomenon. Our results may assist in the planning of several crucial activities, such as water resources management and agriculture.