评估评级曲线不确定性对洪水频率分析的影响

Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1590/2318-0331.272220220012
Luan Marcos da Silva Vieira, J. Sampaio, V. Costa, J. Eleutério
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引用次数: 2

摘要

最大流量通常是通过洪水频率分析,通过理论概率分布对年最大流量数据的统计拟合来估计的。然而,由于现场流量测量的限制,经验模型被用作估计流量的评级曲线。这些曲线是实际流动的近似值,并包含了不同的不确定性来源,特别是在外推部分。这些不确定性在频率分析中传播并影响估计的分位数。为了更好地理解和描述阶段-流量不确定性在这一过程中的影响,将考虑测量站物理知识作为先验信息的贝叶斯评级曲线建模结果与渐近极值理论下的贝叶斯洪水频率分析结果相结合。将该方法应用于位于马托格罗索州内陆的光学测量站。主要结果表明,虽然评级曲线的不确定性可能与最大流量分位数的估计有关,但有限样本推断产生的不确定性可能对流量可信区间产生更大的影响,即使是中等样本量。
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Assessing the effects of rating curve uncertainty in flood frequency analysis
ABSTRACT Maximum flows are often estimated from flood frequency analysis, by means of the statistical fitting of a theoretical probability distribution to maximum annual flow data. However, because of the limitations imposed by the practice of at-site flow measurement, empirical models are applied as the rating curve for estimating streamflow. These curves are approximations of the actual flows and incorporate different sources of uncertainty, especially in the extrapolation portions. These uncertainties are propagated in the frequency analysis and influence the estimated quantiles. For better understanding and describing the influence of the stage-discharge uncertainty in this process, the results of Bayesian rating curve modeling, which considers the physical knowledge of the gauging station as prior information, were combined with Bayesian flood frequency analysis under asymptotic extreme value theory. The method was applied to the Acorizal stream gauging station, located in the interior of the state of Mato Grosso - BR. The main results suggested that, although the uncertainties of the rating curve can be relevant in the estimation of maximum flow quantiles, the uncertainties arising from finite-sample inference might exert greater impacts on the flow credibility intervals even for moderate sample sizes.
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