{"title":"层次可信性伪估计","authors":"Stig. I. Rosenlund","doi":"10.1080/03461238.2021.2002185","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Jewell's credibility model with two hierarchical levels and three variance parameters is treated. Under some additional assumptions, new pseudo-estimators are deduced, i.e. estimators which are defined by expressions that contain the estimands themselves and which must be solved numerically, for the parameters for variation between groups within sector and for variation between sectors. A Tweedie model is assumed for conditional claim rates, with exponent either 1 or 2, where 1 is for conditionally Poisson claim frequencies and 2 is for mean claim severities. Simulation results, where some of the additional assumptions are violated, indicate that our new pseudo-estimators are preferable over previous pseudo-estimators and non-pseudo-estimators for many cases that can be identified. The new between-sectors estimator seems to be universally better than the previous estimators. The goodness-of-fit of an estimator is measured by the square root of its mean square error relative to the true parameter.","PeriodicalId":49572,"journal":{"name":"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal","volume":"82 1","pages":"552 - 564"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Hierarchical credibility pseudo-estimators\",\"authors\":\"Stig. I. Rosenlund\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/03461238.2021.2002185\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Jewell's credibility model with two hierarchical levels and three variance parameters is treated. Under some additional assumptions, new pseudo-estimators are deduced, i.e. estimators which are defined by expressions that contain the estimands themselves and which must be solved numerically, for the parameters for variation between groups within sector and for variation between sectors. A Tweedie model is assumed for conditional claim rates, with exponent either 1 or 2, where 1 is for conditionally Poisson claim frequencies and 2 is for mean claim severities. Simulation results, where some of the additional assumptions are violated, indicate that our new pseudo-estimators are preferable over previous pseudo-estimators and non-pseudo-estimators for many cases that can be identified. The new between-sectors estimator seems to be universally better than the previous estimators. The goodness-of-fit of an estimator is measured by the square root of its mean square error relative to the true parameter.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49572,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal\",\"volume\":\"82 1\",\"pages\":\"552 - 564\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-11-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2021.2002185\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scandinavian Actuarial Journal","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2021.2002185","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Jewell's credibility model with two hierarchical levels and three variance parameters is treated. Under some additional assumptions, new pseudo-estimators are deduced, i.e. estimators which are defined by expressions that contain the estimands themselves and which must be solved numerically, for the parameters for variation between groups within sector and for variation between sectors. A Tweedie model is assumed for conditional claim rates, with exponent either 1 or 2, where 1 is for conditionally Poisson claim frequencies and 2 is for mean claim severities. Simulation results, where some of the additional assumptions are violated, indicate that our new pseudo-estimators are preferable over previous pseudo-estimators and non-pseudo-estimators for many cases that can be identified. The new between-sectors estimator seems to be universally better than the previous estimators. The goodness-of-fit of an estimator is measured by the square root of its mean square error relative to the true parameter.
期刊介绍:
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal is a journal for actuarial sciences that deals, in theory and application, with mathematical methods for insurance and related matters.
The bounds of actuarial mathematics are determined by the area of application rather than by uniformity of methods and techniques. Therefore, a paper of interest to Scandinavian Actuarial Journal may have its theoretical basis in probability theory, statistics, operations research, numerical analysis, computer science, demography, mathematical economics, or any other area of applied mathematics; the main criterion is that the paper should be of specific relevance to actuarial applications.