层次可信性伪估计

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Scandinavian Actuarial Journal Pub Date : 2021-11-24 DOI:10.1080/03461238.2021.2002185
Stig. I. Rosenlund
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对Jewell的两个层次三个方差的可信度模型进行了分析。在一些附加的假设条件下,推导出新的伪估计量,即由包含估计量本身的表达式定义的、必须用数值方法求解的扇区内组间和扇区间变化参数的伪估计量。假设有条件索赔率为Tweedie模型,其指数为1或2,其中1表示有条件泊松索赔频率,2表示平均索赔严重程度。仿真结果表明,在许多可以识别的情况下,我们的新伪估计器优于以前的伪估计器和非伪估计器。新的部门间估计器似乎普遍优于以前的估计器。估计器的拟合优度是用其相对于真实参数的均方误差的平方根来衡量的。
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Hierarchical credibility pseudo-estimators
Jewell's credibility model with two hierarchical levels and three variance parameters is treated. Under some additional assumptions, new pseudo-estimators are deduced, i.e. estimators which are defined by expressions that contain the estimands themselves and which must be solved numerically, for the parameters for variation between groups within sector and for variation between sectors. A Tweedie model is assumed for conditional claim rates, with exponent either 1 or 2, where 1 is for conditionally Poisson claim frequencies and 2 is for mean claim severities. Simulation results, where some of the additional assumptions are violated, indicate that our new pseudo-estimators are preferable over previous pseudo-estimators and non-pseudo-estimators for many cases that can be identified. The new between-sectors estimator seems to be universally better than the previous estimators. The goodness-of-fit of an estimator is measured by the square root of its mean square error relative to the true parameter.
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来源期刊
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
11.10%
发文量
38
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Scandinavian Actuarial Journal is a journal for actuarial sciences that deals, in theory and application, with mathematical methods for insurance and related matters. The bounds of actuarial mathematics are determined by the area of application rather than by uniformity of methods and techniques. Therefore, a paper of interest to Scandinavian Actuarial Journal may have its theoretical basis in probability theory, statistics, operations research, numerical analysis, computer science, demography, mathematical economics, or any other area of applied mathematics; the main criterion is that the paper should be of specific relevance to actuarial applications.
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