荷兰2001年虚拟人口普查:结合不同来源的新方法

Eric Schulte Nordholt
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引用次数: 16

摘要

来自许多不同来源的数据被结合起来制作了2001年荷兰人口普查表。自1971年进行上一次全面人口普查以来,人口参与的意愿急剧下降。荷兰统计局利用现有的登记和调查,在虚拟人口普查中找到了另一种选择。该表的结果不仅可与荷兰早期的人口普查相比较,也可与2001年人口普查回合中其他国家的人口普查相比较。2001年人口普查需要比前几轮人口普查更详细的资料。在处理用于统计用途的各种行政登记册的数据方面取得的经验使荷兰统计局能够发展一个社会统计数据库,其中载有关于个人和家庭的连贯和详细的人口和社会经济统计资料。人口登记册是国家统计局的支柱。对于无法从登记处获得的信息,仍然需要进行抽样调查。为了实现2001年普查表集的总体数字一致性,荷兰统计局的方法学家开发了一种新的估计方法,确保从不同数据源获得数据时表集的数字一致性。这种方法被称为重复加权,它是基于重复应用回归方法来消除不同来源的表估计之间的数值不一致性。2003年,这些数据被合并成荷兰2001年人口普查表。在荷兰,这是使用荷兰统计局已有的数据完成的,而不是通过采访居民进行完整的枚举。通过这种方式,荷兰纳税人收到的人口普查账单要低得多。传统人口普查的成本约为3亿欧元,而使用这种方法的成本“仅”为300万欧元左右。估计数包括所有筹备工作的费用,例如开发一种新方法和附带的软件。登记册的费用不包括在内,但对结果的分析包括在内。登记册并非为人口普查而备存,而是作其他用途。只有在拥有充分登记信息的国家才能节省人口普查费用。例如,我们可以将2001年荷兰虚拟人口普查的成本与加拿大传统人口普查的成本进行比较。在加拿大,人口普查费用约为4.5亿欧元。加拿大大约有3160万居民,是荷兰的两倍。加拿大统计局指出,人口普查结果对地区间资金分配的巨大影响,证明了人口普查的巨大成本是合理的。此外,由于缺乏足够的登记数据,在加拿大不可能进行虚拟人口普查。
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The Dutch virtual Census 2001: A new approach by combining different sources
Data from many different sources were combined to produce the Dutch Census tables of 2001. Since the last Census based on a complete enumeration was held in 1971, the willingness of the population to participate has fallen sharply. Statistics Netherlands found an alternative in the Virtual Census, using available registers and surveys. The table results are not only comparable with the earlier Dutch Censuses but also with those of the other countries in the 2001 Census Round. For the 2001 Census, more detailed information is required than was the case for earlier Census Rounds. The acquired experience in dealing with data of various administrative registers for statistical use enabled Statistics Netherlands to develop a Social Statistical Database (SSD), which contains coherent and detailed demographic and socio-economic statistical information on persons and households. The Population Register forms the backbone of the SSD. Sample surveys are still needed for information that is not available from registers. To achieve overall numerical consistency across the Census tables set of 2001, the methodologists at Statistics Netherlands developed a new estimation method that ensures numerically consistent table sets if the data are obtained from different data sources. The method is called repeated weighting, and is based on the repeated application of the regression method to eliminate numerical inconsistencies among table estimates from different sources. In 2003, data were combined to produce the Dutch 2001 Census tables. In the Netherlands, this was done using data that Statistics Netherlands already had available rather than by interviewing inhabitants in a complete enumeration. This way, the Dutch taxpayer received a much lower census bill. The costs for a traditional census would be about three hundred million Euros, while the costs using this method are 'only' about three million. The estimate includes the costs for all preparatory work such as developing a new methodology and accompanying software. The costs of the registers are not included, but the analyses of the results are. Registers are not kept up-to-date for censuses but for other purposes. Saving money on census costs is only possible in countries that have sufficient register information. As an example, we can compare the costs of the Dutch Virtual Census of 2001 with the costs of the traditional Census that was held in Canada. In Canada, the census costs amounted to approximately 450 million Euros. Canada has about 31.6 million inhabitants, twice as many as the Netherlands. Statistics Canada justifies the huge census costs by pointing out the enormous implications of the census results for the distribution of money among regions. Moreover, a virtual census would be impossible in Canada because of the lack of sufficient register data.
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