巴基斯坦的可再生能源:为前进铺平道路

S. M. Shahzad
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摘要

巴基斯坦人口占世界人口的2.83%,是人口第五多的国家。占世界能源消耗总量的0.37%,排在第35位。人均能源利用率为43W,是世界平均水平的七分之一。巴基斯坦的装机容量为34233兆瓦,然而,它只能产生2.2万兆瓦的电力,而峰值负荷为2.5万兆瓦,造成3000兆瓦的电力短缺。由于技术、经济和管理方面的原因,不利用比峰值负荷大8000MW的现有容量是一个棘手的问题。电力部门的循环债务源于对进口石油的严重依赖和低效的跨层资金流动。电力短缺导致停电,阻碍经济发展。能源问题要求采取具体行动来缓解短缺。未来的道路是将该国的电力工业从进口的以石油为基础的热电厂转变为更可行的本土资源,例如巴基斯坦丰富且具有巨大开发潜力的可再生能源。本文调查了可再生能源的可用性,包括水能、太阳能、风能和生物质能,以及它们目前和未来在总发电组合中的渗透率,并提出了建议。到2030年,巴基斯坦可以从水电中提取30吉瓦,从风能中提取11吉瓦。据估计,为了满足未来的电力需求,必须将尚未开发的巨大太阳能潜力与沼气作为补充投入使用。通过对其他国家采用的不同可再生能源战略和技术进行案例研究,进行比较分析。
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RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN PAKISTAN: PAVING A WAY FORWARD
Pakistan has 2.83 percent of the world's population, making it the fifth-mostpopulated country. At 0.37 percent of the world's total, it ranks 35th in energy usage. Per capita, energyavailability is 43W, 1/7th of the world average. Pakistan's installed capacity is 34233 MW, however, itcan only generate 22000 MW against a peak load of 25000 MW, generating a 3000MW powershortfall. Not using the existing capacity, which is 8000MW larger than the peak load, is a sore issuefor technical, economical, and administrative reasons. Circular debt in the electricity sector stems fromsignificant reliance on imported petroleum and inefficient financial flow across tiers. The electricityshortage causes outages and hinders economic progress. The energy problem calls for concrete actionsto alleviate the shortfall. A way ahead is to transition the country's power industry from imported oilbasedthermalpowerplantstomorefeasibleindigenousresources,suchasrenewableenergyresources, of which Pakistan is rich and has great exploitation potential. This article surveys the availability ofrenewable energy sources, including hydro, solar, wind, and biomass, and their present and prospectivepenetration in the total power generating mix, with recommendations. Pakistan can extract 30 GWfrom hydropower and 11 GW from wind by 2030. According to estimates, a vast untapped potential ofsolar power must be brought into service with biogas as a supplement to meet future power needs. Thecomparative analysis has been done by doing a case study on different renewable energy strategies andtechniques adopted by other countries.
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