亚洲新兴股市收益关联动态与非对称波动溢出

R. Ahmed, Guohao Zhao, U. Habiba
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引用次数: 12

摘要

摘要本研究的目的是探讨亚洲新兴股票市场(中国、香港、日本、马来西亚、巴基斯坦和韩国)之间的收益联系和波动溢出的动态。为了完成这项任务,我们使用了二元EGARCH(1)模型。我们使用的是2010年1月1日至2018年12月31日的每日收盘价。研究结果表明,在所有情况下,自身滞后的溢出效应在1%的水平上都具有统计学意义。我们的研究结果还表明,非对称波动溢出效应在除中国以外的所有抽样股票市场都很显著。我们发现中国市场对香港、马来西亚市场对韩国、香港市场对韩国、巴基斯坦市场对香港市场、日本市场对韩国市场存在单向波动溢出效应。此外,大多数股票市场的波动溢出是显著的和双向的。因此,这些市场是相互关联的,负责经济决策的政策制定者应该考虑溢出效应,因为它们可以将金融部门从意想不到的金融冲击波中拯救出来。
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Dynamics of Return Linkages and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers among Asian Emerging Stock Markets
Abstract The purpose of this study to investigate the dynamics of return linkages and volatility spillovers between Asian emerging stock markets (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, and South Korea). To achieve this task, we used bivariate EGARCH (1) model. We used daily closing stock prices from January 01, 2010, to December 31, 2018. The findings revealed that the own lagged spillovers are statistically significant in all cases at one percent level. Our findings also show that the asymmetric volatility spillovers are significant in all sampled stock markets except China. We find unidirectional volatility spillovers from the markets of China toward Hong Kong, Malaysia toward South Korea, Hong Kong toward South Korea, Pakistan toward Hong Kong, and Japan toward South Korea. Moreover, the volatility spillovers in the majority stock markets are significant and bidirectional. Therefore, these markets are interrelated, and the spillover effect should be taken into consideration by policymakers who are responsible for economic decision making as they can save the financial sector from unexpected financial shockwaves.
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