{"title":"具有一般暴露期和传染期的多斑块流行病模型","authors":"G. Pang, É. Pardoux","doi":"10.1051/ps/2023003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as ``from distance\" from all the other patches. The exposed and infectious periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The migration processes in either of the three states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. We establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.","PeriodicalId":51249,"journal":{"name":"Esaim-Probability and Statistics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Multi-patch epidemic models with general exposed and infectious periods\",\"authors\":\"G. Pang, É. Pardoux\",\"doi\":\"10.1051/ps/2023003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as ``from distance\\\" from all the other patches. The exposed and infectious periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The migration processes in either of the three states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. We establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51249,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Esaim-Probability and Statistics\",\"volume\":\"50 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-06-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Esaim-Probability and Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1051/ps/2023003\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Esaim-Probability and Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1051/ps/2023003","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Multi-patch epidemic models with general exposed and infectious periods
We study multi-patch epidemic models where individuals may migrate from one patch to another in either of the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered states. We assume that infections occur both locally with a rate that depends on the patch as well as ``from distance" from all the other patches. The exposed and infectious periods have general distributions, and are not affected by the possible migrations of the individuals. The migration processes in either of the three states are assumed to be Markovian, and independent of the exposed and infectious periods. We establish a functional law of large number (FLLN) and a function central limit theorem (FCLT) for the susceptible, exposed/latent, infectious and recovered processes. In the FLLN, the limit is determined by a set of Volterra integral equations. In the special case of deterministic exposed and infectious periods, the limit becomes a system of ODEs with delays. In the FCLT, the limit is given by a set of stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by a sum of independent Brownian motions and continuous Gaussian processes with an explicit covariance structure.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes original research and survey papers in the area of Probability and Statistics. It covers theoretical and practical aspects, in any field of these domains.
Of particular interest are methodological developments with application in other scientific areas, for example Biology and Genetics, Information Theory, Finance, Bioinformatics, Random structures and Random graphs, Econometrics, Physics.
Long papers are very welcome.
Indeed, we intend to develop the journal in the direction of applications and to open it to various fields where random mathematical modelling is important. In particular we will call (survey) papers in these areas, in order to make the random community aware of important problems of both theoretical and practical interest. We all know that many recent fascinating developments in Probability and Statistics are coming from "the outside" and we think that ESAIM: P&S should be a good entry point for such exchanges. Of course this does not mean that the journal will be only devoted to practical aspects.