基于ANFIS的中国能源消费与经济增长关系

Xingping Zhang, Yuling Mao
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引用次数: 8

摘要

本文通过纳入能源强度、GDP增长和产业份额等变量,在多元框架下考察了能源消费与经济增长的相互关系。利用基于自适应网络的模糊推理系统(ANFIS)理论,揭示了这三个变量对能源消耗的影响机制。通过对1954-2004年数据样本的训练和模拟,得到了一个基于自适应网络的模糊推理模型,该模型反映了能源消耗与三个变量之间的关系。利用ANFIS对2005年和2006年的能源消耗进行了预测,预测结果与实际能源消耗基本吻合。最后,对节能政策进行了探讨。
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The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China Based on ANFIS
This paper investigates the interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth in multivariate frameworks through including variables of energy intensity, GDP growth, and industry share. We use the theory of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to reveal the mechanism that the three variables exert the influence on the energy consumption. By training and simulating the data samples spans the period 1954-2004, an Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference Model which indicates the relationship between the energy consumption and the three variables is obtained. Furthermore, we predict the energy consumption of 2005 and 2006 using the ANFIS, and the forecast results are precise to the real energy consumption. At last, the energy conservation policies are discussed in this paper.
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