模拟优化在可持续意识项目组合管理中的应用

Miguel Saiz, M. A. Lostumbo, A. Juan, David López-López
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在其他变量中,资源的不确定性和限制使现实生活中的项目组合管理成为一项复杂的活动。仿真优化被认为是解决这类随机问题的一种合适的技术。本文的主要目的是建立一种将优化与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合的混合模型来处理随机项目组合管理问题。一系列计算实验说明了这些混合方法如何将不确定性纳入模型,以及这对知情决策的重要贡献。一个相关的新颖之处是纳入了可持续性维度,这使得管理人员不仅可以根据其货币盈利能力,还可以考虑相关的环境和/或社会影响来选择和优先考虑项目。在评估土木工程、建筑施工或城市改造等领域的项目时,这个额外的标准是必要的。
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On the Use of Simulation-Optimization in Sustainability Aware Project Portfolio Management
Among other variables, uncertainty and limitation of resources make real-life project portfolio management a complex activity. Simulation-optimization is considered an appropriate technique to face stochastic problems like this one. The main objective of this paper is to develop a hybrid model, which combines optimization with Monte Carlo simulation, to deal with stochastic project portfolio management. A series of computational experiments illustrate how these hybrid approach can include uncertainty into the model, and how this is an essential contribution for informed decision making. A relevant novelty is the inclusion of a sustainability dimension, which allows managers to select and prioritize projects not only based on their monetary profitability but also taking into account the associated environmental and/or social impact. This additional criterion can be necessary when evaluating projects in areas such as civil engineering, building and construction, or urban transformation.
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