Intubation and mortality prediction in hospitalized COVID-19 patients using a combination of convolutional neural network-based scoring of chest radiographs and clinical data.

Objective: To predict short-term outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients using a model incorporating clinical variables with automated convolutional neural network (CNN) chest radiograph analysis.

Methods: A retrospective single center study was performed on patients consecutively admitted with COVID-19 between March 14 and April 21 2020. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected, and automated CNN scoring of the admission chest radiograph was performed. The two outcomes of disease progression were intubation or death within 7 days and death within 14 days following admission. Multiple imputation was performed for missing predictor variables and, for each imputed data set, a penalized logistic regression model was constructed to identify predictors and their functional relationship to each outcome. Cross-validated area under the characteristic (AUC) curves were estimated to quantify the discriminative ability of each model.

Results: 801 patients (median age 59; interquartile range 46-73 years, 469 men) were evaluated. 36 patients were deceased and 207 were intubated at 7 days and 65 were deceased at 14 days. Cross-validated AUC values for predictive models were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.86) for death or intubation within 7 days and 0.82 (0.78-0.87) for death within 14 days. Automated CNN chest radiograph score was an important variable in predicting both outcomes.

Conclusion: Automated CNN chest radiograph analysis, in combination with clinical variables, predicts short-term intubation and death in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection. Chest radiograph scoring of more severe disease was associated with a greater probability of adverse short-term outcome.

Advances in knowledge: Model-based predictions of intubation and death in COVID-19 can be performed with high discriminative performance using admission clinical data and convolutional neural network-based scoring of chest radiograph severity.