Probability of new falls and factors associated with them in aged patients treated in emergency departments after falling: data from the FALL-ER registry.

Objectives: To identify characteristics associated with a new fall in a patient who received emergency department care after an accidental fall and to develop a risk model to predict repeated falls.

Material and methods: The FALL-ER registry included accidental falls in patients over the age of 65 years treated in 5 Spanish emergency departments. Independent variables analyzed were patient characteristics at baseline, fall characteristics, immediate consequences, and functional status on discharge. Patients were followed with telephone interviews for 6 months to record the occurrence of new falls. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with falling again and to develop a risk model. We identified 3 levels of risk for new falls (low, intermediate, and high).

Results: A total of 1313 patients were studied; 147 patients (11.2%) reported having another fall. Variables associated with risk of falling again were having had a fall in the 12 months before the index fall, neurological disease, anemia, use of non-opioid analgesics, falling at home, falling at night, head injury on falling, and need for help when rising from a chair. The probability of falling again was 3.5%, 10.5%, and 23.3%, respectively, in patients at low, intermediate, and high risk. The model's ability to discriminate was moderate: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.688 (95% CI, 0.640-0.736).

Conclusion: One in 9 older adults treated in an emergency department for an accidental fall will fall again within 6 months. It is possible to identify patients at higher risk for whom preventive measures should be implemented.