Glucometabolic State Transitions: The Jackson Heart Study.

Background: Diabetes and prediabetes are common among African Americans (AA), but the frequency and predictors of transition between normal, impaired glucose metabolism, and diabetes are not well-described. The aim of this study was to examine glucometabolic transitions and their association with the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods: AA participants of the Jackson Heart Study who attended baseline exam (2000-2004) and at least one of two subsequent exams (2005-2008 and 2009-2013, ~8 years) were classified according to glycemic status. Transitions were defined as progression (deterioration) or remission (improvement) of glycemic status. Multinomial logistic regression models with repeated measures were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) for remission and progression with adjustment for demographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and biochemical factors.

Results: Among 3353 participants, (mean age 54.6±12.3 years), 43% were normoglycemic, 32% were prediabetes, and 25% had diabetes at baseline. For those with normal glucose at a visit, the probability at the next visit (~4years) of having prediabetes or diabetes was 38.5% and 1.8%, respectively. For those with prediabetes, the probability was 9.9% to improve to normal and 19.9% to progress to diabetes. Progression was associated with baseline BMI, diabetes status, triglycerides, family history of diabetes, and weight gain (OR 1.04 kg, 95% CI:1.03-1.06, P=<.0001). Remission was strongly associated with weight loss (OR .97 kg, 95%CI: .95-.98, P<.001).

Conclusions: In AAs, glucometabolic transitions were frequent and most involved deterioration. From a public health perspective additional emphasis should be placed on weight control to preserve glucometabolic status and prevent progression to T2D.