基于神经网络的金融波动预测:系统综述

Wenbo Ge, Pooia Lalbakhsh, L. Isai, Artem Lenskiy, H. Suominen
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引用次数: 14

摘要

波动率预测是金融的一个重要方面,因为它决定了市场参与者的许多决策。通过研究2015年以后发表的35项研究,得出了最先进的基于神经网络的金融波动预测的快照。研究发现了几个问题,例如无法进行简单而有意义的比较,以及现代机器学习模型与应用于波动率预测的模型之间的巨大差距。提出了一项共同的任务来评估最先进的模型,并提出了几种有希望弥合差距的方法。最后,提供了足够的背景,作为神经网络波动率预测领域的介绍。
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Neural Network–Based Financial Volatility Forecasting: A Systematic Review
Volatility forecasting is an important aspect of finance as it dictates many decisions of market players. A snapshot of state-of-the-art neural network–based financial volatility forecasting was generated by examining 35 studies, published after 2015. Several issues were identified, such as the inability for easy and meaningful comparisons, and the large gap between modern machine learning models and those applied to volatility forecasting. A shared task was proposed to evaluate state-of-the-art models, and several promising ways to bridge the gap were suggested. Finally, adequate background was provided to serve as an introduction to the field of neural network volatility forecasting.
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