不确定单准则非线性问题的Savage原理及结果的计算

V. Zhukovskiĭ, L. Zhukovskaya, S. P. Samsonov, L. Smirnova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

上世纪中叶,美国密歇根大学数学家、统计学家Leonard Savage教授(1917-1971)和著名经济学家、瑞士苏黎世大学教授Jurg Niehans(1919-2007)分别提出了不确定条件下单准则问题(OPU)的决策方法,称为极大极小后悔原则。该原理与沃尔德保证结果(最大值)原理在OPU不确定条件下的保证决策中起着重要的作用。极小极大后悔原则的主要作用是执行后悔函数,该函数决定了OPU中的Niehans-Savage风险。近年来,这种风险在实际问题中得到了广泛的推广。在本文中,我们从决策者的角度提出了一种寻找OPU决策的可能方法,这种方法同时试图增加收益(结果)并降低风险(即“一箭双雕”)。作为一种应用,对于一般形式的OPU的线性二次变量,立即找到了这种解的显式形式。
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The Savage principle and accounting for outcome in single-criterion nonlinear problem under uncertainty
In the middle of the last century the American mathematician and statistician professor of Michigan University Leonard Savage (1917-1971) and the well-known economist, professor of Zurich University (Switzerland) Jurg Niehans (1919-2007) independently from each other suggested the approach to decision-making in one-criterion problem under uncertainty (OPU), called the principle of minimax regret. This principle along with Wald principle of guaranteed result (maximin) is playing the most important role in guaranteed under uncertainty decision-making in OPU. The main role in the principle of minimax regret is carrying out the regret function, which determines the Niehans-Savage risk in OPU. Such risk has received the broad extension in practical problems during last years. In the present article we suggest one of possible approaches to finding decision in OPU from the position of a decision-maker, which simultaneously tries to increase the payoff (outcome) and to reduce the risk (i.e., “to kill two birds with one stone in one throw”). As an application, an explicit form of such a solution was immediately found for a linear-quadratic variant of the OPU of a fairly general form.
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