肯尼亚巴林戈县农民对降雨和温度变化对山羊和谷子种植影响的认知评价

I. C. Masinde, D. Mamboleo, Daniel Nyantika
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摘要

世界上许多地方的气候都有变化,主要表现为降雨和温度波动。非洲的变化导致了萨赫勒地区沙漠条件的蔓延。肯尼亚每年的气候变化很大,预计何时降雨也相当不确定,这对农业活动产生了不利影响。本研究的目的是评估农民对降雨和温度变化对巴林戈县山羊和谷子种植影响的认知。本研究采用横断面调查法,采用描述性设计。样本量为384户,来自555,507个目标人口,使用Webster(1995)公式。采用分层和简单随机抽样方法,共抽取384户。前景理论指导了本研究。主要数据收集工具包括问卷调查、关键线人、焦点小组讨论、观察和摄影。为了确定研究工具的可靠性和有效性,进行了一项初步研究,其中0.7的可靠性系数被认为是可以接受的。使用频率、平均值和标准差等描述性统计来分析定量数据。定性数据通过编码模式和主题进行分析,然后将其评估为有用的信息。结果表明,气候变率对谷子和山羊的生产具有严重的不利影响。强烈建议进行干旱前规划,以应付或克服干旱的影响,并提供了措施。研究结果有望帮助农民、政府和经济规划者将重点放在有效的缓解地区,制定替代政策,以减轻降雨和温度变化对巴林戈县农业活动的影响。
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An Evaluation of Farmers Perception on the Effects of Variability in Rainfall and Temperature on Goat and Finger Millet Farming in Baringo County - Kenya
Climate is subject to variations in many parts of world, exhibited by mainly rainfall and temperature fluctuations. The variability in Africa has resulted in the spread of desert conditions in the Sahel. Kenya experiences great variations of climate annually and considerable uncertainty when rains are expected, impacting negatively on farming activities. The objective of the study was to evaluate the farmer’s perception of the effects of variability in rainfall and temperature on goat and finger millet farming in Baringo County. The study adopted a cross sectional survey which is a descriptive design. The sample size was 384 households derived from a target population of 555,507 using Webster (1995) formulae. Both stratified and simple random sampling techniques were used to select 384 households. Prospect theory guided the study. Primary Data collection tools included questionnaires, Key informants, focus Group discussions, Observation and photography. To ascertain reliability and validity of the research instruments, a pilot study was conducted where a reliability coefficient of 0.7 was deemed acceptable. Descriptive statistics such as frequencies, means, and standard deviation were used to analyze quantitative data. Qualitative data was analyzed by coding patterns and themes then evaluating it into useful information. Results indicated that climate variability has severe and adverse effects on finger millet and goat production. Pre-drought planning to cope up or overcome the effects of droughts were highly recommended and measures provided. The study findings are expected to help farmers, the government and economic planners to focus on effective mitigation areas, formulate alternative policies on mitigating the effect of rainfall and temperature variability on activities of farming in Baringo County.
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