灾难性事件下最优多次停车

Noureddine Jilani Ben Naouara, F. Trabelsi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中,我们引入了一个新的最优多次停止时间问题,其中我们假设每个演习都发生在由随机变量建模的灾难事件发布日期之前,并且这种灾难可以是自然的(例如,地震,海啸)或技术的(例如,核事件)。由于突然的灾难会对价格变化产生直接影响,尤其是标的价格和期权定值的价格变化,最终的灾难性事件将由标的价格首次超过某个大障碍来建模。本文的新颖之处在于,考虑了持有者过滤信息在停止时间的基础停止总和的非线性准则,以及在灾难事件发生前涉及的过滤时间的随机行使权数,建立了一个数学模型。这将推广摆动合约的概念,其中行使权利的数量只是确定的和有限的。
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Optimal multiple stopping under catastrophic event
In this paper, we introduce a new optimal multiple stopping times problem, where we assume each exercise right happens before the date of release of a catastrophic event modelled by a random variable and this catastrophe can be natural (e.g., earthquake, tsunami) or technological (e.g., nuclear event). Since a sudden catastrophe will have a direct influence on prices variation, especially those of underlying as well as option's prime, eventual catastrophic event will be modelled by the first time the underlying's price exceeds some large barrier. The originality of this paper comes from a mathematical model taking account of a nonlinear criteria of sum of the underlying stopped at stopping times of the holder's filtration information as well as a random number of exercise rights at sopping times involving prior to a catastrophic event. This will generalises the concept of swing contracts, where the exercise rights number is only deterministic and finite.
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